Double Dutch, 26th December 2015
No pre-Christmas cheer, I'm afraid , as I could only manage one winner, two thirds and a fourth on Tuesday, eventually finishing just over 3 lengths shy of landing a rather attractive 41.75/1 double , but a miss is as good/bad as a mile in this game, no would licking to be done here, we just move on!
Tuesday's results were as follows:
The Lock Master : 3rd at 17/2 (adv 9/2)
Yul Finegold : 4th at 11/10 (adv 5/2)
Believe It : WON at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Mops Angel : 3rd at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
762 winning selections from 2730 = 27.91%
238 winning bets in 707 days = 33.66%
P/L : +77.51pts (+5.49% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Seven go to post here, but it does look (on paper, at least!) the proverbial two-horse race we crave for DD. I do like the Lizzie Kelly / Nick Williams combo generally and in Tea for Two, they've got a horse who'll relish the conditions and is already 2 from 2 at this track, albeit over hurdles. He always seemed like he'd make a better chaser than a hurdler, yet he still won 3 of 8 efforts over timber, before making his chasing bow with a 10 lengths win at Exeter on heavy ground three weeks ago.
This is obviously a step up in quality and trip for Tea for Two, but it does look a little light/weak for a Grade 1 contest and this Listed class winner could very well continue his improvement here today with a win at 9/4 BOG, especially if they go off quickly early on.
The one he'll have to beat, though, is the 2/1 BOG Native River, who was 3 from 6 over hurdles before switching to chasing in October off the back of a 30 week break since Cheltenham's Festival. He was third of seven on that first crack at fences, beaten by less than four lengths staying on well over a much shorter trip than today.
He then stepped up to today's 3 miles to win by 16 lengths on soft ground at Exeter and since then he has had one other run, which resulted in a 4 lengths victory over this trip in a grade 2 contest at Newbury a month ago. That last run puts Native River in the box seat for recent form and signs are that he's well placed to go in again here.
Arthamint (2/1 BOG) was a runner-up over hurdles at Uttoxeter at the end of October before switching successfully to the larger obstacles. He was first past the post on his chasing debut over today's trip at Lingfield on 10th November, but was subsequently disqualified, as his jockey weighed in just over a pound light after the race, but amends were made a week later with a victory over 3m at Warwick. No stamina issues here, nor should the soft ground affect him either.
The one of interest in opposition is Minellaforlunch for me, a very consistent sort, who despite having been beaten in all six attempts over fences, is certainly knocking on the door and getting closer and closer, having finished 643322. His latest run was a 2 lengths defeat over this trip on soft ground at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, when he was fancied enough to go off as an odds on favourite. A slight doubt about the drop in trip suiting the favourite might well be the key for Minellaforlunch at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Native River / Arthamint @ 8/1 (2/1 & 2/1 : Betway)
Native River / Minellaforlunch @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : generally)
Tea for Two / Arthamint @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Betway)
Tea for Two / Minellaforlunch @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : BetVictor, Betway & Ladbrokes)