Double Dutch, 26th January 2014
Despite Rock On Ruby's absence, Valdez did the leg one biz for us on Saturday, but the Cleeve proved as elusive as it maybe looked. Having successfully overlooked Big Buck's' obvious claim, I failed to account for 66/1 winner Knockara Beau!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Rock On Ruby : Non-runner
Valdez: 1st at 15/8
Reve De Sivola: 4th at 11/4
Boston Bob: 6th at 9/2
Results to date:
128 winning selections from 451 = 28.38%
41 winning doubles in 121 days = 33.88%
P/L : +8.04pts (+3.35% ROI)
Here's Sunday's suggested play:
An absolute fizzer of a race, and one which could go in many more than just the two nominated ways. I'm playing safe with the top of the market, in Felix Yonger and Defy Logic, and I expect the winner - if it comes from that pair - to become clear favourite for the Arkle at Cheltenham.
Felix Yonger may have been found out by the longer trip last time, and was also running at a time when Willie traditionally backs off a few of his with a view to peaking them for Cheltenham. He should certainly strip fitter this time, though there will doubtless be a little more to come 'twixt now and the middle of March. He's a classy sort, and a lot of very good judges think he's the Cheltenham Arkle winner (this being the Irish Arkle). He's 9/4 in most places.
Defy Logic has been a springer but there's no fluke about his performances this season. True, he was beaten a couple of lengths by Felix Yonger on yielding ground, but this more sodden turf will play to his staying strengths. He saw off the re-opposing Trifolium last time over course and distance, also in a Grade 1, and he looks sure to go close again. He too is 9/4.
An old warrior who has been much better than these, and looks set for a fine run is Tranquil Sea. A winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup in his younger days, he showed that at twelve he still has zest when finishing second on his first run since the Summer, and for new connections in UK. That was a Class 2 contest and he drops into Class 3 here. On heavy ground, he's won twice, and the trip is spot on. I think he'll probably win and a general 9/4 looks good.
If he doesn't prevail, then it's wide open. Consigliere is a horse I normally get wrong, and he's certainly capable in this grade, but he's not shown much at all and could be running to drop a couple in the handicap ahead of Cheltenham. With that in mind, Dunowen Point makes mild appeal: comfortable on deep turf, and a winner at the track as well as over this distance, he's back to a winning mark and arguably his best trip. 6/1 in a place is playable for small beer.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Felix Yonger / Tranquil Sea @ 9.56/1 (SeanieMac)
Felix Yonger / Dunowen Point @ 21.75/1 (Ladbrokes)
Defy Logic / Tranquil Sea @ 9.56/1 (Bet365)
Defy Logic / Dunowen Point @ 21.75/1 (Ladbrokes)