Double Dutch, 26th July 2014
That elusive 100/300 double still evades us after we drew a blank in race one yesterday. It was hard luck as Dubai Breeze's jockey lost an iron and almost unseated, and then Alpine Affair's jockey went for a fast-vanishing split that closed in his chops. Tasaday won leg two but that's purely academic...
Friday's results were as follows:
Alpine Affair: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 2/1)
Dubai Breeze: 4th at 5/1 (adv 8/1)
Tasaday: won at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
Regardez: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
299 winning selections from 1058 = 28.26%
99 winning bets in 276 days = 35.87%
P/L : +65.16pts (+11.67% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I've previewed this race elsewhere, and if you've read that you'll know I'm sweet on the chance of Danadana. He's a 5/1 shot and the Godolphin-trained favourite, Windhoek, is being backed. As a ten furlong fast ground horse, he'll be suited by conditions and, though I have a reservation about him stepping up to this level, clearly connections do not.
Windhoek has improved to his best figures this year, as a four year old, and may have more to come still. 11/4 is enough of a price as a backup to 5/1 Danadana, for reasons outlined in the post linked above.
If we score in leg one today, we'll have barely time for a pint/cup of tea before leg two is upon us. Wexford maidens don't generally take a lot of winning, and this one looks typically shallow.
There are two well-stabled runners at the head of the market, and they're set a clear bar to clear by a couple of exposed nags with a rating. Hurricane Volta is rated 77, and could conceivably improve to around 80 here. But I'd be hopeful that either or both of the once-raced Sindarban and the Weld debutant, Renown, can surpass that level.
Sindarban was second on his only start, beaten a length by a good looking sort called The Big Cat, with Hurricane Volta a length back in third. He's sure to step forward markedly on that opening run, and should appreciate the additional quarter mile too.
Renown is a first time starter for Dermot Weld, who won with his only other first-timer at Wexford since 2010. Moreover, Weld has a 28% strike rate at the course overall since 2009, and his jockey Pat Smullen also rides it keenly.
My only slight reservation is that sometimes a horse nicks an easy lead in these types of races, especially in Ireland. But Smullen and Foley shouldn't allow that to happen, and if we clear hurdle one we can be very hopeful in this race, I feel.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Windhoek / Sindarban @ 8.83/1 (11/4 & 13/8 : PP)
Windhoek / Renown @ 10.25/1 (11/4 & 2/1 : PP)
Danadana / Sindarban @ 14.75/1 (5/1 & 13/8 : PP)
Danadana / Renown @ 18.5/1 (5/1 & 9/4 : BetVictor)