Double Dutch, 26th November 2013
Our recent mini-slump continued on a frustrating afternoon at Ludlow yesterday. I had initially said that one of three horses would win the 2.50 race and I was proved right. Unfortunately Sod's Law prevailed and the winner (King Massini) was the one I discarded from the three!
Long Wave was right up with the winner until weakening before 4 fences from home and dropping back, but managed to finish third after taking advantage of two horses coming down at that 4th last.
One of the fallers was our other selection What A Good Night, who had been patiently ridden and was just beginning to ask questions of the leader, whether he'd have beaten him, we'll never know!
This renders the subsequent race irrelevant, other than from a personal pride (and forecasts for those of you on that bet) perspective. As it was, three horses were well clear with the 4th placed horse some 86 lengths behind. Unfortunately, we'd got the 2nd and 3rd placed horses, as both Frontier Vic and Realta Mo Croi were outpaced in the run in. Mind you they were conceding 14 and 21 pounds respectively to the winner!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Long Wave: 3rd at 9/2
What A Good Night: fell
Frontier Vic: 2nd at 11/4 (SP 11/8)
Realta Mo Croi: 3rd at 11/4 (SP 5/2)
Results to date:
69 winning selections from 231 = 29.87%
21 winning doubles in 63 days = 33.33%
P/L : +5.00pts (+4.03% ROI)
The profit built up over the last month or so is slowly being eroded, so I could do with getting back in the winners' enclosure with these today...
Rattlin makes her chasing debut here and looks well set to score at the first attempt at odds of around 13/8. Her bid has been aided with the morning withdrawal of Ben Akram and she looks to have too much ability for the others, providing of course, she adapts well to the larger hurdles.
She has won 3 from 9 to date, including back to back hurdles races in the summer and arrives here on the back of a career best performance. Her breeding suggests she'll make a good chaser and should give a good account for a yard that's in good form.
If, however, she doesn't hit it right first time out, then I fancy the 4/1 shot Cavite Eta to be the main beneficiary ahead of Bocamix. Bocamix is a decent enough sort, but seemed to fail to handle this course and distance a fortnight ago off the same mark as today, so he's overlooked in favour of Cavite Eta.
Cavite Eta was a 25/1 winner here at the end of October and ran well enough staying on at Hexham six days when finishing second to a horse he was attempting to concede 16lbs to. He's not as badly treated today and should give Rattlin a good run for her money.
Amir Pasha makes his 100th start today at the age of 8 yrs old, but there's no sentiment involved in his selection today. He's obviously not the force of old, but has come back into some good form recently and won here over course and distance a fortnight ago. He's currently a 5/2 chance to follow that up and despite being raised 8lbs for his latest win, he still looks pretty well treated here.
He ran off 90 last time out and beat a 103-rated rival as well as some of today's opponents, so a mark of 98 shouldn't be the reason for a defeat. The booking of Jason Maguire is significant to me, as he got a real good tune out of Amir Pasha last time and I'm hoping he'll repeat the trick today.
The backup selection has to be between Pindar and High Hoylander for me. The latter looks good at the weights today and although his yard have been performing well of late, I'm put off by the fact that he's still a maiden at the age of 7 and after 15 races, plus he hasn't raced for 22 months, which brings me back to Pindar.
The conditions won't be ideal for Pindar here, he's prefer the ground a bit firmer, but he gets the trip and has good speed between the hurdles (3 wins over 1m2f on the flat) and comes here in good form (1432 in his last 4 starts). he receives 11lbs from Amir Pasha and has Samantha Drake on his back today claiming another 5lbs.
He should be quick enough to contest a run-in, if he's still on the premises at the last hurdle and he's carrying no weight at all and looks a decent backup plan at odds of 4/1.
She should come on for that run from 18 days ago and I expect to see her back in the winners enclosure later this afternoon.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Rattlin / Amir Pasha @ 19.19 with Seanie Mac, BetVictor and Boylesports
Rattlin / Pindar @ 13.13 with BetVictor
Cavite Eta / Amir Pasha @ 17.50 generally
Cavite Eta / Pindar @ 25.00 with BetVictor and BetFred