Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th August 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 27th August 2015

And so it continues. Yet another winner-second combo yesterday and, while profits are cutting back, it should be easy enough to see that the wheel will turn soon enough in our favour. The thing with racing, as I don't need to tell you, is that when you're hot you're untouchable, and when you're not, well, you're not...

We didn't put 100+ points on the board running scared, and we won't add to them with that modus operandi either, so buckle up and let's go again...

Wednesday's results were as follows:

Goldslinger : WON at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Fast Pick : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 15/8)
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Highlife Dancer : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
Greek Islands : U/p at 4/1 (adv 10/3)

Results to date:
658 winning selections from 2338 = 28.14%
207 winning bets in 606 days = 34.16%

Stakes: 1211.50pts
Returns: 1312.95pts
P/L : +101.45pts (+8.37% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

We head north in search of a change of luck starting in the...

4.00 Musselburgh :

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I've come to the conclusion that it may be better to have a cut at this than run scared, and this race offers reasons - at prices - to be hopeful. The well backed favourite as I write is Spring Offensive, for the in-form Fahey-Garrity combination. They've been successful with six of their last twenty joint ventures (30%), and this chap was whiskers away from scoring the last day in this grade, and over this distance and going. With pace aplenty for him to finish off his chance is clear.

Nineteen times Green Howard has tried and failed to win on the turf in Class 3. Not an obvious one to nominate then, but it's been the less obvious runners which have sunk our Double Dutch battleships in recent times, so we'll see if he can make it twentieth time lucky(!)

He's been in career best form in truth, running close (but no cigar) in races that didn't set up as well as this one, where there are three thirsty pace-guzzlers. For a hold up hoss like GH, that looks optimal. He won two races off similar marks at this time last year (same sort of trip and ground), and he could make for a chunky carry forward to leg two, if the gods conspire in our favour for a change.

*

7.00 Sedgefield :

Just the other side of the border is Sedgy, and in a tentative pair of races, I'm opting for a smidge of perceived value. Waterclock is a very good flat horse, and has yet to be exposed over hurdles. After failing to get home over a quarter mile further last time, this could be a plum trip for a horse with class to burn in a race such as this.

If he can't replicate most of his flat ability to timber-topping, Ben Haslam's Ever So Much could be the headline beneficiary. Descending down the handicap was his making last time, as he found a way to win in Class 5. Upped again to the level above, it will be tougher, but he now has confidence on his side... and, let's say, might have been managed to his basement perch by 'thinking' connections. Trip and ground are fine, and he's a dual course winner over fences at this sort of range. Indeed, he's unbeaten at the track. Hopefully that can continue.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Spring Offensive / Waterclock @ 16.5/1 (5/2 & 4/1 : bet365)
Spring Offensive / Ever So Much @ 13.07/1 (9/4 & 10/3 : Coral)
Green Howard / Waterclock @ 34/1 (6/1 & 4/1 : Bet365)
Green Howard / Ever So Much @ 29.31/1 (6/1 & 10/3 : Coral)

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3 replies
  1. homeyc says:

    Many thanks Matt – lets ‘get on the board with these selections. A snippet I heard this morning is that ‘Ever So Much does like some cut in the ground and with the firm going forecast may well be taken out should it be too fast when trainer accesses the track.’ So that might effect prices although probably not until later. Cheers C

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Good news for us as it turns out, Pat. We have a max loss of 0.375 points, thanks to the 9/4 we took on Spring Offensive in the double with Ever So Much; and we have 3.2/1 after 20p R4 on Waterclock, who is now 2/1 and 9/4, for a chance of a 13.7/1 double.

      I’m certainly not counting our chickens after recent reversals, but am hopeful…

      Matt

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