Double Dutch, 27th December 2014
A contrasting game of two halves and any other trite cliches you can think of, they all applied to DD yesterday. We'd one race where our selections ran really well and one where they had a stinker.
Friday's results were as follows:
Retrieve The Stick: u/p at 11/1 (adv 8/1)
Jukebox Melody: u/p at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Gilgamboa: won at 7/4 (adv 15/8)
Adriana des Mottes: u/p at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
445 winning selections from 1546 = 28.78%
141 winning bets in 401 days = 35.16%
P/L : +95.92pts (+11.97% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm not making excuses, but it looks tough today with heavy ground and non-runners everywhere, but here goes...
From a statistical point of view, there was a lot to like about Melodic Rendezvous, but his withdrawal allied to Grandouet's failure to win in the last two years hopefully means this becomes a two-horse race.
God's Own has won here in the past, has won on soft ground and had won over today's trip. He was a Grade 1 winner at Punchestown earlier in the year over fences and followed that up with a win in the Haldon Cup at Exeter, albeit after a six month break and although he wasn't at his best in the Tingle Creek three weeks ago, this isn't as good a race as that one and he's every chance of bouncing back at 5/2 BOG (Coral).
The one he'll have to beat though is likely to be Vibrato Valtat, who but for a slightly mistimed ride at Cheltenham last month could be coming here three from three over fences. As it is, that sub-2 lengths defeat gives him a 121 record in chases and although the Grade 1 he won last time out at Sandown three weeks ago wasn't the strongest race you'll see, he did beat the odds-on Irish Saint into third place and that one was a 13 lengths winner last Saturday at Ascot.
This is a lower grade affair than his Sandown win and he could well go in again at 9/4 BOG.
I looked closely at Luv U Whatever as a possible pick for Stat of the Day or my new Stat Picks service, but I just felt he was a little bit short at 13/8 BOG with Bet365 as a single bet. If, however, we've got a 9/4 winner in the bag from the above race, then 13/8 would do nicely!
He's a decent from an in-form yard and comes here with a record of 4 wins from 7 at this track and he's 2/2 over course and distance. Favourites do well in these lower grade affairs at Southwell and Mick Appleby tends to have a good winter on the A/W, especially in 3yo+ handicaps and I'd expect Luv U Whatever to enhance his stats today.
Things don't always go to plan, though and the beauty of the Double Dutch is that we get two bites at the cherry, enabling me to pick a back-up selection and Plan B here looks like Lean On Pete who has been running consistently well despite not winning too often of late. Seven races have passed since he won over course and distance here back in March, but he has finished in the first three home in five of those seven races, including back to back placed efforts at Wolverhampton this month.
He holds Hussar Ballad off that last outing and looks dangerous here today off a mark 5lbs lower than that last win and at 7/2 BOG is the perfect secondary selection.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
God's Own / Luv U Whatever @ 7.75/1 (5/2 & 6/4 : Coral)
God's Own / Lean On Pete @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : SkyBet)
Vibrato Valtat / Luv U Whatever @ 7.53/1 (9/4 & 13/8 : Bet365)
Vibrato Valtat / Lean On Pete @ 13.63/1 (9/4 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Hills)