Double Dutch, 27th November 2013
No joy again yesterday, but I did manage to at least find the winner of one of the races, which itself was an improvement from the previous couple of days!
Unfortunately Amir Pasha's 5/2 victory only served to massage my bruised pride, because the bet was already down after I failed to even get a runner inside the first three home in a six-horse race.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Cavite Eta: 4th of 6!
Rattlin: 5th of 6!
Amir Pasha: won at 5/2 (SP 2/1)
Results to date:
70 winning selections from 234 = 29.91%
21 winning doubles in 64 days = 32.81%
P/L : +3.00pts (+2.38% ROI)
We're unfortunately almost back at the break even point, so I'm switching my focus to some evening all-weather action from both sides of "the water" in a bid to drag myself off the cold list...
I can't see the winner not coming from either Fattsota or Banoffee and I have a slight preference for the former.
Fattsota will probably look to take the race on from the start and will be difficult to beat/pass if allowed an easy lead. He was only beaten by a length and a half in a Listed contest last time out over a trip that was too short for him and he's expected to go better at 1m4f, where he has already won twice. Current best price for this one is 15/8 with William Hill
Banoffee (15/8 with Coral) has already won in Listed company (Cheshire Oaks in May) and although she hasn't won any of her subsequent four races, she has been running in Group 1 & 2 races, so this represents an easier task (on paper, at least!). She was 4th on her A/W debut (also a Listed event) at Lingfield four weeks ago, so she can be expected to handle the surface a little better here today. She finished strongly that day in a race that lacked early pace and the presence of Fattsota should ensure a truer gallop today.
Both Rose Angel and Doc Holliday come here in cracking form seeking hat-tricks, but they can't both win!
Rose Angel is the current 2/1 (Paddy Power) favourite and has finishes of 33311 in her last five outings with her last two victories coming over this course and distance. She has, of course, risen up the weights as a result, but her yard have enlisted the services of a talented young 10lb claiming jockey tonight to more than offset the penalty. She had previously been ridden by the 7lb claimer Robbie Downey who is now asked to...
...use his claim against the 5lb penalty being carried by Doc Holliday for his back to back wins in a recent sequence reading 25211, with his last two efforts also being over this track (one at 7f and one over C&D). Mr Downey was also on board for both of those victories and it is expected that he'll get the best out of this one once again. Watch out for him trying to blast out and put the race to bed early. If allowed to do so, it could make his 11/4 (Stan James) price tag look very good value indeed.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Fattsota / Rose Angel @ 8.29 with William Hill
Fattsota / Doc Holliday @ 10.31 with Stan James
Banoffee / Rose Angel @ 8.25 with Paddy Power and BetFred
Banoffee / Doc Holliday @ 10.08 with Coral