Double Dutch, 27th October 2013
Sometimes you get it spot on correct and sometimes you're miles off target. Well, had the proverbial "game of two halves" yesterday.
I absolutely nailed the 4.45 Chepstow, when I discarded the morning favourite (finished 5th of 6) and I advised that Sire De Grugy would beat Majala home. That's exactly how it went and at odds of 7/2 & 5/2, they also provided me with a nice £13.32 forecast (the Exacta paid £12.30)
Unfortunately for the main purpose of this feature, the double was already well down the river, after we'd already blown the earlier race. The beast we could manage was a distant (15 lengths off the pace) third place for Al Alfa, whilst Arthurs Pass was pulled up before the last fence.
Mind you, not many would have predicted the horses that denied us the double would have been priced at 12/1 and 25/1!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Al Alfa: 3rd at 11/8 (SP 6/5)
Arthurs Pass: pulled up
Sire de Grugy: won at 7/2
Majala: 2nd at 7/2 (SP 5/2)
Trial to date:
58 winning selections from 187 = 31.02%
17 winning doubles in 52 days = 32.69%
P/L : -0.45pts (-0.44% ROI)
We've just slipped back into the red, so we're going need some help from these runners across the water today...
Double Seven comes here on the back of four straight wins and despite stepping up in class today still looks the one to beat. He gets the going, has won at the trip (and longer and shorter!) and even an 8lb rise shouldn't stop him going in again at 7/4 with both Boylesports and Paddy Power.
I'd expect Willie Mullins' Laganbank to provide the stiffest opposition here. He might well be on a 4-race losing run, but he has been competing at a much higher level than this and drops back down in class to run here and comes here in good nick.
Although only finishing 4th last time out, he was less than 6 lengths behind the excellent Sizing Europe in a Grade 2 race at Gowran Park three weeks ago and any repeat of that run might see him snatch this at odds of 9/4 (Boylesports & Paddy Power)
Pat Garrett is definitely the one to beat here, providing his jumping holds up. On paper he's the best in the race, but has had the odd fall or two of late. He looked to be back towards his best when winning comfortably at Downpatrick nine days, where he was so far clear that his jockey stopped him down to walking pace and still scored by three lengths! It won't be quite so easy today, but he should be a nice winner at 9/4 (Paddy Power)
I don't see much to trouble the selection here, but my alternate is a little bit left field and one of those that will look brilliant if it comes off, but also having the ability to make me look foolish if it doesn't!
You see, I like Georgie as an 8/1 E/W bet with Paddy Power anyway, so my logic is that if he's getting placed anyway, it might well be 1st or 2nd to Pat Garrett!
Georgie, for the record, tends to go well here and has won on this course in the past. he comes here today on the back of a very good run when finishing second at Limerick a fortnight ago and whilst he couldn't get to the winner, he was a good 17 lengths clear of his nearest pursuer. 8/1 BOG represents very good value in my opinion, but time will tell how mad I've been!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles with Paddy Power as follows:
Double Seven / Pat Garrett @ 8.94
Double Seven / Georgie @ 24.75
Laganbank / Pat Garrett @ 10.56
Laganbank / Georgie @ 29.25