Double Dutch, 27th September 2014
Paolazzi was beaten by a length into second place at 7/4 in the Worcester bumper yesterday, with Pied du Roi very disappointing, a further 7 places and 43 lengths further back, despite being well backed and sent off as 6/5 favourite.
This meant the result from Wolverhampton was going to count for very little, which is just as well as I got it completely wrong! There were 8 runners and the best I could manage was a 4th and a 5th. Of our two runners, 2/1 shot Red Touch finished 2.5 lengths ahead of 6/4 favourite Cosmic Ray and both were well beaten in all honesty.
Not one of my better days.
Friday's results were as follows:
Paolazzi: 2nd at 7/4 (adv 2/1)
Pied du Roi: u/p at 6/5 (adv 15/8)
Red Touch: u/p at 2/1 (adv 10/3)
Cosmic Ray: u/p at 6/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
359 winning selections from 1265 = 28.38%
118 winning bets in 329 days = 35.87%
P/L : +62.50pts (+9.48% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I could do with pulling out a couple of winners to arrest the slide and end the week on a high...
Balducci is 2/2 over course and distance and has had an excellent season for the in-form David O'Meara. He was third last time out in a decent (£50,000) Class 2 handicap at York, when only beaten by three quarters of a length behind Short Squeeze (who actually won this race last year!) and Top Notch Tonto who both then moved on to Group standard racing, with the latter coming within two lengths of winning a Group 2 event at Leopardstown a fortnight ago.
This race is nowhere near the standard of that York encounter and the fact that he has only been raised one pound for that run is encouraging. Matt also highlighted the stats regarding the Tudhope/O'Meara partnership here at Haydock (see here) and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Balducci take this at 7/2 BOG.
The big threat is expected to come from Big Baz, who is 2/5 at this type of trip and has been running well again of late, finishing second in each of his last two starts since coming back from a three month break. he's still relatively unexposed, with just eight runs to his name and only made his debut in late December last year. He has won two and placed three further times in his eight starts and still looks progressive.
Big Baz might need a bit of luck today for things to fall his way, but at 7/2 BOG, he's got every chance of winning if kept fairly handy, especially as his mark of just 82 means he's getting bundles of weight from all his rivals today
I really like La Napoule here and I was pleasantly surprised to see her as long as 9/4 BOG here. SDhe ran really well in defeat a month ago at Kempton, when finishing second staying on strongly. That was a stronger race than this one looks, which to be frank is a poor contest.
La Napoule might well still be a maiden after nine races, but her form on the A/W has been very good without winning and is clearly the best on offer this season from any of the eight runners set to go to post. She has finished 2353 on the A?W and should relish this true tapeta surface this evening, especially as the withdrawal of Wedgewood Estates should make her task easier.
The poorness of this race is highlighted by the fact that my second pick, Qatar Princess, hasn't raced for 360 days, but she was placed in two of her three runs to date and if able to run well after the break, holds far better form than the rest of this pack. She makes her debut for her new trainer today and is an interesting one here, suggesting the team have waited for a weak race to put her back into action. 9/4 BOG is also the best available for Qatar Princess at the moment.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Balducci / La Napoule @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Balducci / Qatar Princess @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Big Baz / La Napoule @ 13,63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Big Baz / Qatar Princess @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : generally)