Double Dutch, 28th August 2015
Has anyone seen Groundhog Day? In that film, Bill Murray goes through a cycle of the same day, gradually changing his attitude/approach until he finally wins the girl.
Well, we're going through a cycle of similar proportions just now, as we suffered yet another 1-2 result yesterday. The soft landing, such as it was, was that a non-runner in leg two gave us a win single from the opening race and minimized losses to 0.375 points. But we don't want minimal losses, we want profit.
In point of fact, Green Howard, our non-winning pick in leg one - and a 7/1 shot - got a horror run and may well have won with a clear passage - he was beaten just two lengths, flying at the death when finding daylight. That would have made for a profit on the day from the win single. Woulda coulda shoulda.
Friday offers another opportunity to move forward...
Thursday's results were as follows:
Spring Offensive : WON at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Green Howard : 5th at 7/1 (adv 6/1)
Waterclock : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 11/8)
Ever So Much : NR
Results to date:
659 winning selections from 2341 = 28.15%
208 winning bets in 607 days = 34.27%
P/L : +101.08pts (+8.33% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Heavy ground specialism is the order of the day on what will be extremely testing turf at Ffos Las...
Five go to post for this six furlong slog in the mud, and the solid pick is Ffos Las hat-trick-seeking Sir Billy Wright, who also won on heavy ground last time. This is a step up in trip for him but he gave the impression he needed it last time, and is actually bred for a mile and more. It's a step up in grade too, so we'll have to see if that finds him out.
If it does, a trio of contenders lie in wait, principally Ed Walker's Ghalib. An easy winner on soft ground four starts back, he's been second in this grade since, and gets the Luke Morris power pack this afternoon. This is his first attempt at heavy but both breeding and that five length (!) soft ground win offer hope, so 11/4 is playable in the circumstances.
Avoiding the temptation to nominate the first two in the betting in the three runner race - it's been that sort of run - I'm instead waiting for the last race and a last time out eleven length heavy ground winner.
If Bleu Astral was trained by a big name rather than Alexandra Dunn, he'd be a lot shorter than the 15/8 Paddy offer. Bred for deep ground, he had his first sight of slower than good when romping home by a double figure distance and, still in the bottom grade, he surely can go in again for a trainer who does very well with heavy ground types (8-31, +31.5).
The only other I'm really interested in is Improvized, a son of Authorized, who has won over a mile on heavy ground, and here over a mile on soft ground. He's a hold up type and if they get the fractions wrong will be the main beneficiary. He's dropped a stone and more down the handicap since his last win and ran much better last time when third, suggesting a return to form could be imminent.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Sir Billy Wright / Bleu Astral @ 7.94/1 (9/4 & 7/4 : bet365, Skybet)
Sir Billy Wright / Improvized @ 20/1 (2/1 & 6/1 : totesport, Betfred)
Ghalib / Bleu Astral @ 8.36/1 (9/4 & 15/8 : PP)
Ghalib / Improvised @ 21.75/1 (9/4 & 6/1 : totesport, Betfred)