Double Dutch, 28th July 2015
As seems to have been the norm over the last week, we were frustrated with a winner/placer combination once more yesterday.
It was particularly galling after getting the winner of what looked a trappy 60-90 contest at Galway and then failing in an average-looking C5 handicap 10 mins later at Windsor, but these things are sent to try us!
Monday's results were as follows:
Harasava : WON at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Loved : 4th at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Choral Festival : 3rd at 7/1 (adv 5/1)
Born To Be Bad : 4th at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
636 winning selections from 2241 = 28.38%
201 winning bets in 581 days = 34.60%
P/L : +124.81pts (+10.75% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm looking for a bit more from these...
Not the best maiden you'll ever see, but the main protagonists here have now run often enough for me to (hopefully) take two against the rest. Obviously, there's no winning form in a maiden, which makes Livella Fella's recent performances the best on offer. She's clearly the most exposed here after 5 starts, but finishes of 2322 in her last four outings and defeated by less than a length in three of those races suggests she's banging on the door.
Beaten by a short head a week ago by a horses 4lbs well in and now dropping in class to this lowly Class 6, she'd be the one to beat at 2/1 BOG (SkyBet) in a contest that looks much weaker than any Livella Fella has contested of late, provided, of course, she takes well to a track where her trainer has an excellent record over the last few years.
The potential fly in the ointment is likely to be Invigorate, who ran well over 6f here five days ago, just held off by a neck whilst doing all his best work staying on at the finish, suggesting that todfay's extra furlong might be the key to a first win. He did at least prove that he gets this tapeta suface well enough once he'd got going and that experience should stand himn in good stead today.
One thing that did strike me is that you don't often see the Dunlop horses here at Wolverhampton, but with 3 winners from 12 on this Tapeta, I'm not sure that it's the suitability of the track keeping them away. If you fancy Invigorate to make it 4/13, then he's available at 7/2 BOG in several places.
The bookies are suggesting that this year's renewal of The Lennox Stakes is a two-horse race and Matt's excellent Day 1 preview of the Goodwood meeting backs up this theory and I'm inclined to agree with them, especially as Matt himself has probably forgotten more about racing than I've ever learned!
So, I'll not ramble on about whys and wherefores, my two here are Toormore at 5/2 BOG with BetVictor (slightly shorter elsewhere) and Dutch Connection at 5/2 BOG (generally) for the reasons stated in Matt's piece.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Livella Fella / Toormore @ 8.75/1 (2/1 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
Livella Fella / Dutch Connection @ 9.50/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : SkyBet)
Invigorate / Toormore @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : BetVictor)
Invigorate / Dutch Connection @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Bet365, Ladbrokes & Hills)