Double Dutch, 28th March 2014
A communications breakdown between the off on hols Chris and the assuming the chair Matt meant there was no Double Dutch yesterday. Apologies for that break in service, but normal service is now resumed, and I'm happy to report that Chris signed off with a winning double on Wednesday. Not only that, but with the withdrawal of one of the runners in race one, we also got a bonus win single Cataria Girl.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Sound Advice: won at 6/4 (adv 9/4) 20p R4
Exclusive Water: Withdrawn at 5/2 (adv 2/1)
Cataria Girl: won at 10/3 (adv 3/1)
Bennelong: 3rd at 6/4 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
192 winning selections from 672 = 28.57%
64 winning bets in 176 days = 36.36%
P/L : +53.27pts (+15.22% ROI)
I'm taking a bit of a chance here, based on the change in ground and I'm siding with two horses that act on heavy ground. Categorical is in his right grade, has plenty of winning form on both soft and heavy, and has three course wins to his name as well. The distance is spot on too, and this 9/2 shot ought to be bang there under optimal conditions.
The most likely leader is Galway Jack, and he too will appreciate the rain which has dampened the ground in the north east. A winner last time out in similar going, distance and class, Caroline Bailey's nine year old is only a pound higher here. If he gets into a nice rhythm on the front, he could be tough to pass at 5/1 in a place.
This looks a match between National Service and Almargo. National Service was a bit unlucky here on his only previous attempt at the track, when finishing fourth, beaten just three-quarters of a length. There's a nice bit of pace for him to run at here, which will suit his late-finishing style, and he ought to go very close. 15/8 is the best BOG price on his chance.
The one that might get first run on him is Almargo from the all-conquering Mark Johnston stable. This fellow is well drawn to be on the speed, and has Adam Kirby, arguably the best all weather jockey, doing the driving. Almargo won a maiden last time, and doesn't look to be over-faced in this company. 13/8 BOG is reasonable.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Categorical / National Service @ 14.84/1 (9/2 & 15/8 : SJ)
Categorical / Almargo @ 12.75/1 (9/2 & 6/4 : totesport)
Galway Jack / National Service @ 15.5/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : bet365)
Galway Jack / Almargo @ 13.41/1 (9/2 & 13/8 : BetVictor)