Double Dutch, 29th August 2014
A loose dog on the course meant that our two races on Thursday went off in reverse order, which was a shame as it denied us at least a run for our money. The first race - which went off second due to that daft mutt (and more pertinently, its daft owner) - was won by AP McCoy on Finding Your Feet, our 3/1 pick.
Alas, in the second leg - which spoiled all the fun by going off first - we got no sort of run from either Green Bank, who resented the first time blinkers and the challenge for the lead; or short priced favourite, West End, who couldn't pick up off steady fractions.
All that means it was a losing day. Sigh. Onwards to as moderate a Friday as I can remember. But there are a couple of interesting opportunities, including a bit of a chancy selection in leg two - well, it is a lovely price!
Thursday's results were as follows:
Finding Your Feet: won at 9/4 (adv 3/1)
The Kings Assassin: 3rd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
West End: 4th at 6/4 (adv 11/8)
Green Bank: 5th at 7/2 (adv 5/1)
Results to date:
335 winning selections from 1170 = 28.63%
110 winning bets in 305 days = 36.07%
P/L : +71.47pts (+11.72% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm very hopeful of getting through leg one today, and will take a chance in leg two...
A novice hurdle that is thin on both quantity and quality and, while both Never Never (13/8 BOG) and My Betty (11/4 BOG) are more adept at placing than winning, they look to have each other to beat here.
Never Never is trained by course specialist Donald McCain and ridden by perennially in-form AP McCoy, which is a good start. He also has the highest official rating of these, and has the highest speed rating (not that this will necessarily be a fast run race). The trip should suit, though that is not guaranteed, and McCoy has won on him previously, so knows what to expect.
My Betty has the second highest speed figure, has won at the distance, and is ridden by perennially in-form Richard Johnson. He got outpaced last time when dropped back to two miles having won over this sort of trip the time before. Back up in range, I think he might be slightly better value than the favourite and has a good win chance.
The danger is probably the improving Sudski Star, who was has moved from a rating of 91 up to 119 over fences. That still gives him a bit to find in this novice hurdle, and it's by no means a given that he will translate that big bush form to the little brushes here.
Leg 2 is an interesting little Listed contest, with a compelling reason to take one at a longer price, alongside the jolly old favourite, of course. The favourite is Saeed bin Suroor's Winters Moon (7/4 BOG), ridden by Andrea Atzeni. This chap has had two starts, winning and then finishing third in a seven furlong Group 3. This drop to Listed class and step up to a mile looks spot on for a son of New Approach out of a staying mare, and he'll probably win granted normal luck in running.
Tupi is the second favourite and has her chance if seeing out the distance. But it won't be easy against the boys, and I like the look of Mister Universe (17/2 BOG) to potentially cause a shock at a bigger price. The first thing to say is that he will probably lead in this small field, and that can be a powerful edge. Secondly, he has the highest speed figure in the field, though that needs to be considered in the context of them all being potentially capable of a good bit more than they've shown so far. And thirdly, he has an excuse for his defeat last time (taken on for the lead).
They're an interesting pairing, with the chance that either Tupi or Andrew Balding's Elm Park could mess things up for us.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
Never Never / Winters Moon @ 5.86/1 (13/8 & 13/8 : Hills)
Never Never / Mister Universe @ 23.89/1 (13/8 & 17/2 : bet365)
My Betty / Winters Moon @ 9.5/1 (3/1 & 13/8 : PP)
My Betty / Mister Universe @ 34.63/1 (11/4 & 17/2 : bet365)