Double Dutch, 29th December 2013
Twice Lucky was just held off in race 1 , whilst Allanard was a distant third and my forecast came to grief as Wilde Blue Yonder came a cropper late on.
I did get the winner of that race, but it didn't really count for anything, but my own male pride!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Twice Lucky: 2nd at 7/4 adv (SP 5/4)
Allanard: 3rd at 6/1 BOG
Stand To Reason: won at 11/8 BOG
Wilde Blue Yonder: fell at 11/8 adv (SP 11/10)
Results to date:
99 winning selections from 344 = 28.78%
30 winning doubles in 93 days = 32.26%
P/L : +6.55pts (+3.56% ROI)
Over to Ireland today for what looks like two three-horse races. I just need to eliminate the right one!
Hurricane Fly is the current 5/4 favourite and with a 19/22 record over hurdles, it's hard to dispute that. He's only odds against, because this possibly represents his toughest assignment for a while, but I can't see two horses beating him home. One might, but two seems unlikely. This might seem like strange logic for a selection, but I think he's going to be in the top two, which is ideal for any forecast fans out there.
Of the two main rivals, I have a slight preference for Our Conor over Jezki. I do like Jezki, but I'm not convinced he jumps well enough under pressure and I feel that the manner of Our Conor's recent victories have been the more impressive of the two. There is, in reality, little to separate them here, but a judgement call is required, so I'm with Our Conor at 5/2 BOG.
I can't see the winner of this coming from outside the top three in the market and if we've survived the Ryanair Hurdle above, I'm going to be brave and oppose the favourite Fort Smith here. I've nothing against him, but there's little value to me at 5/4 about a horse that was a well-beaten 5th on debut. There's sure to be improvement to come, but the price offers no real persuasion.
This leaves my preferred selection Value At Risk (currently 13/8) and the 11/2 shot Yes Sir Brian.
Value At Risk ran well to finish second on debut and followed that up with a nice win at Fairyhouse four weeks ago. He's already running well enough to land this and any further natural/expected improvement should only serve to make his task easier.
Yes Sir Brian offers real value at 11/2 in my opinion. He's 122 in these bumpers to date, with a win and a narrow (short head) defeat on soft ground. Conditions will suit and if kept up to his work, could press the selection hard for the spoils.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Hurricane Fly / Value At Risk @ 4.91/1 (PP, Hills 5/4 & 13/8)
Hurricane Fly / Yes Sir Brian @ 13.63/1 (PP, Coral 5/4 & 11/2)
Our Conor / Value At Risk @ 7.75/1 (Seanie Mac, Boylesports 5/2 & 6/4)
Our Conor / Yes Sir Brian @ 20.13/1 (PP, Coral 9/4 & 11/2)