Double Dutch, 29th March 2014
A tasty double on Friday, as Galway Jack and Almargo obliged at a cumulative 13.41/1.
Friday's results were as follows:
Galway Jack: won at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Categorical: 4th at 13/2 (adv 9/2)
Almargo: won at Evs (adv 13/8)
National Service: 6th at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
194 winning selections from 676 = 28.7%
65 winning bets in 177 days = 36.72%
P/L : +58.49pts (+16.62% ROI)
Saturday is a tricky day, but there are a few races to play at, and I've opted for this pair.
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
It's probably dangerous taking flat fitness on trust, but I know that Willie Haggas normally has his string forward form the outset, so Graphic is an automatic choice here. He's progressive, likes soft ground, and this is his trip. He'll also get a nice position behind the leader (probably Emell) to make his move. 5/2 is right enough.
If not Graphic, then I reckon Fencing could reward his trainer and owner's faith. Fancied for the Classics in his three year old season, he didn't quite live up to those lofty aspirations. Nevertheless, he has won two Listed races, and was third in the Racing Post Trophy here as a juvenile. This will be the softest he's raced on, and as a son of Street Cry, it's not certain that will suit. But he has class and if the trainer elects to run here, that's a clue to his prospects, and 3/1 reflects that going concern.
If we're still running, I'm going to ride my luck in a four horse race where I'm leaving out the favourite. It might prove to be folly, but hear me out. The favourite is Baily Green, a good horse - second to Simonsig in last year's Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival - but not a great one. He looks susceptible to two 'very good on their day' types who are likely to prefer this heavy ground to Baily Green.
The first is Bog Warrior, a nag with as many problems as he has talent. He's looked a weak finisher in some of his races, but when he gets it right, he's better than these. It is a while since he won a chase, but he bagged a Grade 2 hurdle four starts back and will love the muddy turf.
Also in our corner is the slightly more reliable Roi Du Mee, who has actually won a Grade 1 chase this term. That was back in November, and he's seemed to have gone off the boil since then. But if returning to within a sneeze of his best, he'll be a danger to Baily Green on this drop in trip and class.
Like I say, it could prove reckless to leave the favourite out, but faint heart never won fair maiden!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Fencing / Bog Warrior @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : PP)
Fencing / Roi Du Mee @ 15.24/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Graphic / Bog Warrior @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : bet365)
Graphic / Roi Du Mee @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : bet365)