Double Dutch, 29th November 2013
We got ourselves back in winning mode yesterday, with two winners, a second and a third place from our four selections. The two winners combined for a nice 12/1 double at our BOG advised prices: a great deal better than the 9/1 SP return.
This brings me almost back to my own minimum expectations from this service of 30% individual winners and a 1 in 3 strike rate for the doubles.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Koolala: won at 100/30 (SP 5/2)
Dewala: 3rd at 11/4
Thomas Brown: won at 2/1 (SP 15/8)
Maestro Royal : 2nd at 100/30 (SP 9/4)
(The Exacta paid £6.60 here)
Results to date:
72 winning selections from 242 = 29.75%
22 winning doubles in 66 days = 33.33%
P/L : +5.50pts (+4.23% ROI)
At 4.23%, we're in Bank ISA territory, I suppose, but I'd really like us to run at an ROI of 10% or above. Hopefully we can get closer to that figure with today's selections, which are as follows:
My biggest dilemma in this race was to choose a backup selection to the favourite Highbury High, who actually looks decent value at 13/8 BOG. His detractors will say that he only landed a similar contest to this last week by a length and is now asked to go a furlong further and carry a 7lb penalty. The truth is that he won have won a good margin, but for a really bad error at the last fence.
He sprawled badly on landing, his jockey lost an iron and he was headed on the run in, yet he still rallied to get up to beat an 8/13 favourite. But for that error, he had plenty in hand.
The main challenge, (I think!) will come from 9/2 shot The Mumper, who gets to run here off the same mark as his very creditable third place at Taunton a fortnight ago. That was his first run for six months, yet he stayed this trip well to finish just three lengths down at a good price of 20/1. He'll run fitter for that outing and takes a drop in class here, making him a dangerous prospect.
This looks a fairly mediocre contest, if truth be told and as such, it's hard to dismiss the chances of That's Plenty scoring his fourth consecutive victory. This son of Dr Fong is 262111 on all-weather surfaces (here and at Dundalk) and he's 2 from 2 here including a course and distance win two starts ago. He is, of course, up another 5lbs, but I still think he's on a very winnable mark and the 5/2 currently on offer looks appealing.
Of the rest, Marcret is probably the most likely to mount a challenge. he's a former Group 3 winner (so there's definitely ability there, maybe the attitude has been suspect), but has lost his way over the last year. He recently moved to David O'Meara's yard and showed some glimpses of past performances when 4th over this course a fortnight ago. He faded late on that day, but the drop back in trip might just make him a viable proposition at 11/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Highbury High / That's Plenty @ 9.19 with BetVictor
Highbury High / Marcret @ 9.84 generally
The Mumper / That's Plenty @ 19.25 with BetVictor and Ladbrokes
The Mumper / Marcret @ 20.63 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and BetFred