Double Dutch, 29th October 2015
Kodiac's Back won yet again at Dundalk last night to maintain his excellent recent form and the way he finished, coupled with an SP of 13/8, made our 5/2 selection look like a very good piece of business indeed and with Doc Holliday also well supported as I thought he might be and finishing third, just over half a length off the pace, it meant we'd done very well there.
Unfortunately that wasn't the case at Nottingham earlier in the day where deteriorating conditions almost led to the abandonment of the meeting as the going changed to heavy and neither of our runners looked entirely comfortable with the conditions.
Q Ten Girl fared best, finishing fourth and beaten by less than a length and a half, but she visibly wilted late on, whilst Custom failed to cope from a long way out, his challenge beginning to wane 3f out, before he eventually finished last of the 7 runners, beaten by almost 30 lengths.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Q Ten Girl : 4th at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Custom : 7th at 5/2 (adv 7/4)
Kodiac's Back : WON at 13/8 (adv 5/2)
Doc Holliday : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
710 winning selections from 2546 = 27.89%
226 winning bets in 660 days = 34.24%
P/L : +107.64pts (+8.16% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Thursday's selected races...
The 3/1 BOG favourite Love The Leader is the logical place to start as the form horse in this contest, coming here off the back of three successive wins over hurdles, the latest just three days ago at Ayr off a mark of 103, which will surely rise next time he tackles the smaller obstacles.
As a result, he could well be very leniently treated off 96 for his chasing debut, but he has already proved he can jump in a couple of Point to Point races. Stamina therefore, also shouldn't be his undoing, although there are some fears about his ability to cope with unknown soft ground, but at the price offered, Love The Leader looks a reasonable proposition.
Champagne Agent, on the other hand, is no stranger to fences, although he hasn't exactly been too successful in the past. Prior to his last outing 17 days ago, he was 0/15 over hurdles and 0/15 over fences, but ran out a 12 lengths winner over this course and distance on good to soft ground and if coming back in a similar mood could take some beating.
Based on past form, there's absolutely no reason to say he will perform the same way again, but this looks a weak contest and of his 11 rivals here, 7 haven't been seen for 6 months or longer and could need the run, the fav has no chasing experience and the other three are badly out of form, so I suppose Champagne Agent gets the nod at 4/1 BOG almost by process of elimination.
Candella won on her seasonal reappearance/handicap debut over C&D in August and, having run creditably in two defeats since that day, there is possibly more to come from her considering, especially with just 6 runs under her belt.
She was caught on the line and beaten by a nose at Windsor last time, but that was over 1m3.5f on good to soft ground ground and the drop back in trip, a quicker surface and the booking of Andrea Atzeni are all positives me for me here and Candella would be my pick at 5/2 BOG.
The bookies, however, seem to prefer the 7/4 BOG Mr Pickwick who makes just his fifth start and returns to 1m2f for his second handicap outing and looks to have plenty of scope for improvement.
He did, in fairness, produce a decent performance when fourth on his handicap debut at Nottingham earlier this month, but was a little one paced late on, suggesting the extra furlong and a half could be the key here. His yard is in good form of late, but the possibly of improvement wouldn't have me rushing to back Mr Pickwick at 7/4 BOG as a single, but he'll do as half of a double!
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Love The Leader / Mr Pickwick @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 : Boylesports, Coral & SkyBet)
Love The Leader / Candella @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Ladbrokes)
Champagne Agent / Mr Pickwick @ 12.75/1 (4/1 & 7/4 : SkyBet)
Champagne Agent / Candella @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Ladbrokes)