Double Dutch, 29th September 2013
Better news / performances / results from Saturday, I'm pleased to report. Race 1 went the way of the favourite Sky Lantern who powered through to take the race after hitting the front inside the final furlong after being asked for an effort. Elusive Kate had led approaching the 1f marker, but faded to 4th in the final 100 yards or so.
Then, 45 minutes later Spirit of Shankly justified the weight of money he'd attracted. We got on at 5/4, he opened on course at 6/5 and was eventually sent off as the 5/6 favourite. He ran well and despite hitting the last hurdle, stayed on strongly to score by 3.25 lengths. Meanwhile, Benefit Cut led until three out, but couldn't keep pace with the front two and he had to settle for a third place finish at 6/1.
This meant we landed ourselves a double at 8.94, providing a little relief to the P/L figures!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Sky Lantern : won at 9/4 (SP 7/4)
Elusive Kate: u/p (4th)
Spirit of Shankly: won at 5/4 (SP 5/6!)
Benefit Cut: 3rd at 6/1
Trial to date:
22 winning selections from 87 = 25.29%
5 winning doubles in 24 days = 20.83%
P/L : -20.82pts (-44.77% ROI)
Ireland & Scotland are our hosts today starting with the
A race that has been won by 8 favourites in the last 10 years and fancy this to follow suit with Guerre, who was a course and distance winner on his only start to date. He beat Diamond Stilettos by a length that day and that horse has since gone on to win to frank the form a little. He's from the stallion War front who has provided Ballydoyle with 11 winners from 19 races, including Declaration of War. I'm not suggesting Guerre is that good, but should be good enough to take this at around 11/10.
The main threat comes from Shining Emerald who destroyed the field last time out at Listowel, taking a 7f maiden by a whopping 16 lengths and he had previously finished third to Sudirman, who went on to win the Phoenix Stakes. The main concerns over Shining Emerald are the drop back to 6f and the lack of rain in the air. These issues are, therefore, reflected in his current price of 11/4.
Here Now And Why has been knocking on the door of late, finishing 332 in his last three races, all over today's course and distance. He drops down in class today and has the benefit of one of the stronger jockeys amongst these apprentices in the shape of Jason Hart. If he gets away sharply, he could well make and justify his tag of 7/4 favourite.
But it would be foolish to write off Beauty Pageant too quickly. She comes here in decent nick, after made the frame at Kempton on Wednesday and will be looking to take advantage of a handicap mark that has plummeted to 57 (she has won off 80!) And whilst Claire Murray isn't as experienced as Jason Hart, a 7lb claim over 5f will surely come in handy to make Beauty Pageant a decent Plan B at 5/2.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows with either Bet365 or Paddy Power:
Guerre / Here Now And Why @ 5.78
Guerre / Beauty Pageant @ 7.35
Shining Emerald / Here Now And Why @ 10.31
Shining Emerald / Beauty Pageant @ 13.13