Double Dutch, 2nd April 2014
Yesterday was one of those days that highlights the value of the 'two picks parachute'. Basically, I thought Bivouac was a lively alternative to the favourite, and I thought Certain Flight was a probable winner. I was hopelessly wrong on both counts, and yet we still got paid out with a winning double!
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Kingscombe: won at 11/10 (adv 5/4)
Bivouac: 5th at 14/1 (adv 13/2)
Certain Flight: 3rd at 13/8 (adv 6/4)
Chosen Milan: won at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
199 winning selections from 688 = 28.92%
67 winning bets in 180 days = 37.22%
P/L : +64.31pts (+17.96% ROI)
Here's the Wednesday couple, and we're on the late shift, starting in the...
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll say straight off the bat that I'm taking a punt here on Brabazon. He was absolutely terrible the other day when fourth of four at Wolverhampton, a track at which he'd previously won twice. And he's not won for three years. But his record at Lingfield is two from three, both over this trip, and the booking of Jamie Spencer strongly suggests that if any ability remains, today will be the day it is shown. He's 11/2 top at the moment, and to be honest, if he doesn't shorten he's probably not going to win. But I think he's worth taking a chance on, especially as our other option is a lot more solid.
Bert The Alert is a Lingfield specialist - no bad thing when the finishing straight requires a horse to quicken as this one does - and has won four of his thirteen career starts, placing on another three occasions. Over course and distance, he's had just the one run - a win - in a selling handicap. This 0-60 is no better than a seller in truth, and he comes here fit and in form. He's the most likely winner, and 11/4 reflects that while offering a hint of value to my eye.
After rounding out the double in a hunter chase yesterday, I'm going to attempt the same feat again here. As with yesterday's event, there's an obvious favourite and an obvious second choice, and they obviously have it between them. Obviously.
Of course, it doesn't always pan out like that - after all, bookies are still taking bets, right? - but Shy John and Coombe Hill look very solid. The former is up and coming, and won a course and distance event on heavy in late January. Since then he's won again on soft, and ran a very sound race when eighth in the Cheltenham Foxhunters' at the Festival. If that hasn't left its mark, and if he copes with this slightly quicker going, he's probably going to win.
If there are any chinks in Shy John's armour, Coombe Hill may be able to expose them even at age thirteen. Not seen since third to Shy John in that course and distance hunter, Coombe Hill has form figures in course and distance hunter chases of 213 with the win coming on good ground. He seemed not to get home on the softer turf, though that might have been because of age catching up with him rather than the going. Time will tell.
Even with that reservation, he's the most reliable alternative to a solid favourite, and the rest - headed by the once talented Marufo - have much to prove, though Iron Chancellor may have more to offer than many.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Bert The Alert / Shy John @ 6.5/1 (11/4 & Evs : BetVictor)
Bert The Alert / Coombe Hill @ 15.24/1 (11/4 & 10/3 : BetVictor)
Brabazon / Shy John @ 12/1 (11/2 & Evs : BetVictor)
Brabazon / Coombe Hill @ 27.15/1 (11/2 & 10/3 : BetVictor)