Double Dutch, 2nd January 2015
More crossbar rattling on New Year's Day, I'm afraid, with a winner paired with a runner-up, as El Beau's defeat at Musselburgh being the difference between a 2pt loss and a double at 18.5/1. As it was, he was fairly well beaten by 4.5 lengths, but it could well have been a different story, had he not made a right mess of the last hurdle, but ifs and buts don't payout at the counter!
All of which is/was a pity after the 5/1 Minstrels Gallery routed the favourite Aficionado by a good 14 lengths at Fakenham, but that race did at least give me the compensatory reward of a near 15/1 exacta.
Thursday's results were as follows:
El Beau: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Galizzi: u/p at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Minstrels Gallery: won at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Aficionado: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 9/4)
The exacta paid £15.90 here.
Results to date:
449 winning selections from 1566 = 28.67%
141 winning bets in 406 days = 34.73%
P/L : +85.92pts (+10.59% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Double A/W action for a Friday as follows...
Shades of Silk was a dual C&D winner here at Southwell in the summer and showed signs of a return to that form with a narrow defeat over course and distance last time out. She runs off a mark just a pound higher than that run and this race looks a weaker affair than last time out. overall her record here at Southwell reads 1142 and she's 3/9 over this trip and looks likely to give another good account of herself at 5/2 BOG.
The one she'll need to beat, though, is Red Tide who has been in excellent form since switching to 6f handicaps, finishing 131 in his three efforts, including a course and distance win last time out in a battling display staying on late. He should come on for having had the experience of that first Southwell run and stands a good chance of extending his recent good form with a win at 5/2 BOG.
On official ratings/weights, Yair Hill would appear to be well in here, but no run in 140 days and no win in 9 races over 20 months isn't inspiring. The added fact that he has only beaten 16 of his 120 rivals in that losing run is the final straw for me here today, leaving me with only two real alternatives.
Haadeeth is 223021 in his last six outings in handicap company and always seems to give a good account of himself. The drop into claiming races allied to his jockey's 7lb claim mean he's carrying very little weight in what looks a really poor race today and I'd expect him to be on the premises at 2/1 BOG, but if he wants to win, he'll have to beat Scoreline, also priced at 2/1 BOG.
Scoreline was also a handicap winner last time out and that was on this track just 11 days ago. He's 2/5 on the All-weather and his experience of the tapeta might just swing this in his direction stepping back up to 6f. Josh Doyle claims 7lbs as he did last time out and the way the horse stayed on to lead late on last time augurs well for the step back up in trip.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Shades of Silk / Haadeeth @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports & SkyBet)
Shades of Silk / Scoreline @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports)
Red Tide / Haadeeth @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports, BetVictor & Hills)
Red Tide / Scoreline @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : Boylesports)