Double Dutch, 2nd July 2014
We didn't get the best of starts to July yesterday, I'm afraid. I did manage to get my selections finishing one behind the other in the suggested order in both races, but that was as good as it got, as I failed to find the winner of either race.
We went down by a neck in race 1 and by a length and a quarter some 20 minutes later, making for a bad day at the office.
Monday's results were as follows:
Red Rocks Point: 2nd at 15/8 (adv 7/4)
Chance To Dance: 3rd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
Silverrica: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
Shilla: 4th at 7/4 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
275 winning selections from 985 = 27.92%
88 winning bets in 256 days = 34.38%
P/L : +46.34pts (+9.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm looking for a swift return to winning form with these today...
It's fair to say that Dr Irv hasn't lived up to last year's form and the same can be said about his trainer Philip Kirby, but this race looks the ideal opportunity for both to get back to winning ways. It was around this time last year that this horse won three out of four races, including one over today's course and distance. Two of those wins were at Class 4 level and his recent indifferent form could be purely because he's not good enough to win at Class 3! Coming down to Class 5 represents a major drop in expectations and could just be what he needs to clock up a fourth win in eight efforts at this trip. You can currently get 15/8 BOG about him doing just that.
He won't have it all his own way though, for Hot Spice will be doing his level best to defy a 7lb hike in weight. There might be some concerns about this being his first attempt at the 2m trip, but he stepped up to 1m6f for the first time at Redcar 11 days ago and won as comfortably/easily as one could have wished for. The official margin of victory was just 3.75 lengths, but he controlled the race, leading with over a mile to run and seemed to be doing just enough and holding plenty back.
If he runs like that again today, then the extra 2f won't trouble him at all and we could have a contest on our hands, especially if old form is to be trusted. He was third last summer in a higher grade than this and off a mark 2lbs higher than today, so there's every chance of him stepping up again to land this at 5/2 BOG.
Tiradia continues to climb the weights, but his form over the past year or so is not only consistent, but easily the best on offer here today. Finishes of 332212 in his last six outings clearly set the standard here. he's had a short break of 8 weeks since last running into second place at Market Rasen, where his rivals from that day have gone on to run well since, clocking up 2 wins and 6 places from 10 efforts. He was beaten by the progressive Gold Futures that day and the latter has since stepped up to Class 3 and won again. Tiradia meets nothing of that calibre today and should take this at a generally available 15/8 BOG.
I'd expect Super Collider to be the biggest danger if this latest 4lb rise proves too much for our main selection. Super Collider has been running well of late, finishing second in each of his last two races. He was only beaten inside the final 100 yards at Carlisle in April (this race is a half furlong shorter than that), before finding the soft ground too difficult at Hexham last time out. He's on his preferred better ground today and will be buoyed by Bell Weir's win at Hexham a fortnight ago, having finished a length ahead of him previously. We can currently get 7/2 BOG about Super Collider.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Dr Irv / Tiradia @ 7.27/1 (15/8 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Dr Irv / Super Collider @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetVictor, SkyBet & PP)
Hot Spice / Tiradia @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : BetVictor)
Hot Spice / Super Collider @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : generally available)