Double Dutch, 2nd June 2014
Saturday went the way that much of May did, I'm afraid. What I mean by that is decent runs from decent selections just failing to win. In race 1 up at York, Sirius Prospect went down by just half a length to course and distance specialist Dutch Rose, for whom the general consensus was that she was carrying too much weight. That, unfortunately, wasn't the case and she just held on to score by three parts of a length at a nice price (9/1!).
Our best-placed in race 2 was heavily backed, so there must have been others of the same opinion that Purple Bay would win. I'd got him in our doubles at 9/2, but he was eventually sent off as the 6/4 favourite! As it was, he ran a decent race, but was outpaced on the dash to the line after the last hurdle. perhaps his earlier battle for the lead had taken its toll?
Saturday's results were as follows:
Sirius Prospect: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 7/2)
Best of Order: u/p at 9/2 (adv 5/2)
Purple Bay: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 9/2)
Cool Macavity: PU at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Results to date:
245 winning selections from 882 = 27.78%
78 winning bets in 230 days = 33.91%
P/L : +34.41pts (+7.45% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Looking back at the month just gone, I'm still pretty happy with my selections and I wouldn't say that too many of them were bad selections (there were a couple, of course!), but I have to hold my hands up and say that results were very disappointing indeed.
I'm hoping/striving for much better in June: I just wish that my first runners of the month weren't on such a poor-looking day of racing. Nevertheless, every race has a winner, so I'll try to find the victors of these today...
The going is soft, heavy in places and that could cause a few of these "lightweights" a problem today. Lord Buffhead, however, will relish the conditions underfoot having already won twice and been placed twice in six runs on heavy ground over this minimum trip. he is dropped to a very workable mark of 49 less a 5lb claim and could spring a surprise at 6/1 BOG in a weak-looking contest. I might even be swayed into a small E/W side bet.
My preference however is for triple course and distance winner and current 5/1 BOG chance Two Turtle Doves. She is second favourite here to a 27-race maiden, but looks really long at 5/1. She might have only won 5 of her previous 67 outings, but she's 4/21 at this trip, has won twice on soft ground and has three wins and a place from seven runs here at Chepstow with all three wins coming over today's trip, where her record reads 11461 and today she gets to run off a mark 1lb lower than her last win.
If my first pick wins this, as I expect Crowley's Law to, we're not getting rich at her current 7/4 BOG odds. She represents an in-form trainer and will be ridden by an in form jockey and comes here in pretty good nick herself. With a career record of 5121 and running well in both starts this season, she looks the most likely here. She was second at Thirsk a month ago on the back of a near-8 month break and followed that run with an impressive win at Haydock 10 days ago. She stayed on well despite having no challenge in the last two furlongs to win by almost five lengths and there's probably more to come from this one.
The biggest threat is expected to come from Danehill Revival, a lightly raced (just two starts) 3 yr old filly. Both her runs have been on soft ground, so that shouldn't be an issue today and she won comfortably on debut at Pontefract in early April at Class 5 level.
She was then immediately put into a Listed event at Ascot at the end of April and although 4th of 6 doesn't look great on paper, it doesn't tell the full story. She was, in fact, only beaten by 2.5 lengths and was just a head behind former Group 2 runner-up and 105-rated Rufford. Ryan Moore, who rode her to victory on debut, is back in the saddle today and she looks to have every chance at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Two Turtle Doves / Crowley's Law @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Hills)
Two Turtle Doves / Danehill Revival @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2 : BetVictor)
Lord Buffhead / Crowley's Law @ 18.25/1 (6/1 & 7/4 : Coral)
Lord Buffhead / Danehill Revival @ 21.50/1 (6/1 & 7/2 : Coral)