Double Dutch, 2nd May 2014
Talk about going from the sublime to the ridiculous?
After three good days, I kicked May off with an absolute clunker, that I really didn't see coming. Fourth and fifth from two fancied runners in a seven horse race was followed swiftly by another kicking five minutes later.
I did, however, manage to get one horse placed at a nice price, but that was as good as it gets.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Beckermet: u/p at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Tajneed: u/p at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Tilstarr: 3rd at 7/1 (adv 11/2)
Lady Lunchalot: u/p at 10/1 (adv 17/2)
Results to date:
225 winning selections from 784 = 28.70%
74 winning bets in 206 days = 35.92%
P/L : +67.44pts (+16.53% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
The good thing about a daily service is that I get an immediate opportunity to improve on yesterday's selections. So here goes...
Our Philli Vera won this race last year, beating the reopposing Play Street by four lengths and although the latter is now a pound better off, I don't think he'll be able to reverse the placings. Conditions look ideal for Our Philli Vera, who is 4 from 9 on soft ground, three wins and a place from nine at this level and has two wins and a place from five starts at this type of trip. The small field is a bonus too, as he is 3 from 6 (plus a place) in races of 7 runners or less and is obviously a course and distance winner from last year's race. He may well be rated at 4lbs higher than that last renewal, but I fancy him to go well again at a generally available 3/1 BOG.
Whilst Play Street is sure to be involved in the shake up, I think the 7/4 BOG favourite Calm Attitude is the one most likely to challenge my selection. This horse has an unbeaten 3 from 3 record on soft ground, as she rattled up a 45-day hat trick last autumn before taking a break. It remains to be seen whether she might need this run after her 231-day absence, but she's still unexposed after just 7 races (1/1 over today's trip) and she's expected to improve further this season and is only rated a pound higher than her last run.
Which isn't the easiest to call, but I do like the profile of Gregori. He has won five of his last eight starts since a switch to A/W racing (12114311) and he has won four of his last six here at this track. His record over course and distance reads 131 and if he's allowed to dictate affairs, he'll be difficult to beat at 7/2 BOG.
The main threats are Green Monkey and Port Alfred and there's probably not a great deal between all three of them. I've backed a couple of Godolphin horses that have been turned over when well fancied this week and Charlie Appleby isn't in the best fo form, so I'm going to overlook the favourite and go with Green Monkey.
Now, I know that Green Monkey's best recent form is on turf and I know he's not got a great draw, but since dropping down to this minimum trip has shown tremendous consistent form, winning three of four races and beaten by a head in the other. It's a transition from turf to A/W, but he has run well on Good ground and good to firm and LTO winners on good to firm ground have a 20% strike rate over 5f here and have returned level stakes profits of over 46% above stakes, so a 9/4 BOG bet on Green Monkey might not be a bad thing.
Which should hopefully lead us nicely in to the...
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Calm Attitude / Green Monkey @ 7.94/1 (7/4 & 9/4 : Hills, PP, BetVictor & Coral)
Calm Attitude / Gregori @ 11.38/1 (7/4 & 7/2 : BetVictor & Coral)
Our Philli Vera / Green Monkey @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : pretty much everywhere!)
Our Philli Vera / Gregori @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Boylesports, BetVictor & Coral)