Double Dutch, 2nd October 2014
Manofmanytalents was withdrawn from race 1 shortly after I'd gone to press yesterday, leaving us with just one reduced priced selection, Just Us Two to carry our hopes. As it was, he ran out a nice winner by two lengths and even with a 20p Rule 4 deduction, our 7/5 (from 7/4) odds easily beat the even money SP. This meant we were in with a shout of a double and a bonus single from race 2.
And that's where the good news ends. The second race wasn't good for us or punters in general. In an 8-runner race where the top three in the market all finish unplaced, you know it's not your day. For the record, our runners trailed home 6th and 7th, beaten by 17L and 28L respectively, which is quite a big margin over a mile.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Just Us Two: won at evens (adv 7/4 = 7/5 after R4)
Manofmanytalents: non-runner (adv 7/2)
Faure Island: u/p at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Unforgiving Minute: u/p at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
364 winning selections from 1280 = 28.44%
119 winning bets in 333 days = 35.74%
P/L : +63.81pts (+9.56% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I've left it late today, because there seems to be lots of non-runners around and I wanted the markets to settle before selecting these for Thursday...
I like the unexposed The Steward for this one representing the Morris/Prescott axis. The partnership have been in great form of late and they've just the one today with this horse who cost $185,000, suggesting someone expects bigger things than this from him. He looks quite well treated off 7 for his handicap debut and just his third start after winning a maiden here over course and distance last time out. Both is runs to date have been over this C&D and he showed promise on debut, staying on to get within 4 lengths of the winner.
Luke Morris takes over from Chris Catlin and whilst Chris is more than capable, the change is a positive move for me. We're entitled to see further improvement from this horse and whilst his mark off 77 looks pretty lenient, he'll also be aided by his 3lb weight for age allowance, meaning that The Steward's odds of 9/4 BOG might look quite big later this evening.
If, however, he shows any signs of inexperience on his handicap debut, then I'd expect Never To Be to take most advantage. Not massively exposed with just seven runs to date, but he knows what the game is about already. 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes from those 7 starts make him a contender here, especially with an A/w record reading 122, all here at Kempton. So, we know he gets the track well enough and has won here in the past.
He also gets a similar 3lb allowance to the favourite, but does carry 6lb more than his rival. That said, Never To Be is no mug, neither are his handlers and he looks a decent Plan B at 7/2 BOG today.
I was going to back Zeshov in this race for a couple of reasons and now he doesn't run (another non-runner!), I think the door is now open for either Peace Accord or Aragosta.
Peace Accord is currently available at 2/1 BOG as he attempts for a second course and distance win (1/1 so far here). He's 1112 this season since a change of trainer and is unbeaten in two UK all-weather runs. He was only beaten by half a length staying on at Pontefract last time out and the easing in weight by a pound allied to a return to 7f here should suit him and he looks the most likely to me.
Aragosta, however, will ensure he doesn't get things all his own way. She's had just four starts to date, finishing third on debut at Windsor in May 2013, before a year off the track to return at Haydock with another third placed finish. Her latest two runs have been on the all-weather, winning here over course and distance six weeks ago, before being narrowly denied three weeks ago at Wolverhampton. She was beaten by just a nose that day on her handicap debut with her victor subsequently going on to be placed in a bigger and better race at Chester. If you like Aragosta, she can be backed at 9/4 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt E/W doubles as follows:
The Steward / Peace Accord @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Stan James)
The Steward / Aragosta @ 9.56/1 (9/4 & 9/4: Stan James)
Never To Be / Peace Accord @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Bet365)
Never To Be / Aragosta @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : Stan James)