Double Dutch, 30th May 2014
Sometimes you just have to take a defeat on the chin and congratulate your victor. I take my hat off to Ryan Moore who rode a brilliant race at Sandown last night, taking the much shorter inside line on his way to beating our 5/2 shot Indy.
Despite it costing us a double at 29.5/1, I had to applaud his performance for not following the others in running so wide and clearly had something in reserve for a devastating late burst, leaving our selections aback in second and third places.
All this came after Jenny Powell had steered my 8/1 E/W bet One Pursuit to a very comfortable win at Haydock, where conditions were absolutely spot on for him and I don't doubt he'll win again.
Thursday's results were as follows:
One Pursuit: won at 4/1 (adv 8/1)
Norway Cross: u/p at 2/1 (adv 5/2)
Indy: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 5/2)
Newtown Cross: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
243 winning selections from 874 = 27.80%
77 winning bets in 228 days = 33.77%
P/L : +31.91pts (+7.03% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Now that I've finished banging my head against the wall, here are Friday's selections...
Trainer Andrea Atzeni is having a great season and in Hillbilly Boy, he has a horse in excellent consistent form recording finishes of 3121132 since the turn of the year. This horse has a record of 221 on soft ground and not beaten by far in both defeats. He is 0121211 over today's 7f trip with the only blot being a Listed event back in 2012, this is much easier.
He was last seen three weeks ago when beaten into second place at Ascot, where he found the 6f inadequate. he actually dead-heated for second with Red Refraction that day and the latter was a winner at Goodwood last Friday over 7f. The current best price for Hillbilly Boy is 100/30 BOG.
Victoire de Lyphar is of interest here, too. He races after a short 4-weeks rest to get over the exertions of a 10-day hat-trick at the end of last month. All three runs were over today's 7f trip and the last two runs were on soft ground, so going and trip look ideal for the four-timer and he's had a breather.
He does, however, step up in class here and carries the burden of an extra 8lbs, which means that at a rating of 95, he's now some 20lbs higher than the start of this run of form. Yet he has run very well in the past off marks of over 100, so there may still be some scope for him to go well again today. Confidence will be high and that often counts for more than just weight.
He has more wins on soft ground than the rest of the field combined and has won four times over today's trip. Currently available at 5/1 BOG, he looks a decent backup prospect.
Where You're Fired is the current 2/1 BOG (BetVictor) favourite after a decent run (finished 3rd) at Doncaster last time out. He was only beaten by a length and a half by New Bidder who was completing back to back wins on soft ground. That race at Doncaster was You're Fired's first effort in handicap company and his first run for six months. He handled the soft ground well enough and should come on for that run and gets to go off the same mark here today. He should be the one to beat, especially if kept handy in the opening stages.
Of the remainder, I like the look of 5/1 shot Regiment who is likely to race prominently throughout. He was a winner in similar conditions (class 4, 7f, soft) last time out at Warwick when beating Lincoln by almost two lengths. Lincoln then reappeared here at Haydock last Saturday, stepping up in class and was only beaten by half a length over 7f on soft ground once more. If allowed to dictate, a similar performance from Regiment could well be enough.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Hillbilly Boy / You're Fired @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Hillbilly Boy / Regiment @ 23/1 (3/1 & 5/1 : BetVictor)
Victoire de Lyphar / You're Fired @ 15.50/1 (5/1 & 7/4 : Skybet & Betfred)
Victoire de Lyphar / Regiment @ 32/1 (5/1 & 9/2 : Ladbrokes & Coral)