Double Dutch, 30th September 2013
For the second time inside the week, it was double double time again yesterday as we backed up Saturday's 7.94/1 double with another at 19.25/1 on Sunday.
Both selected races had an eerie air of coincidence around them, as both favourites got turned over by our alternate picks, who were both returned at an SP of 7/2, after both had drifted from my advised morning prices.
Firstly, Guerre was hammered in to 8/11, but was well beaten (3 lengths) by the strongly staying on Shining Emerald and for those that way inclined, the Exacta paid £7.70.
Then two and a half hours later, Here Now And Why was also a beaten favourite despite keeping on at the death. He finished the best part of a length behind Beauty Pageant who rewarded jockey Claire Murray's enterprising front-running tactics to make all. Cheyenne Red was the unlikely 16/1 meat in our sandwich finishing in second place.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Shining Emerald : won at 7/2
Guerre: 2nd at 8/11 (4th)
Beauty Pageant: won at 7/2
Here Now And Why: 3rd at 15/8
Trial to date:
24 winning selections from 91 = 26.37%
6 winning doubles in 25 days = 24.00%
P/L : -12.69pts (-26.16% ROI)
Flat racing from Scotland and England provide the setting for the hat-trick attempt starting with the...
Manatee Bay is related to some decent sprinters and has made progress in each of his five starts to date, culminating in a course and distnace win here last week, when dropping down to 5f for the first time. He has, of course, been hit with a 6lb penalty for that win, but jockey Jordan Nason's 7lb claim will more than cover it. He took last monday's race by a couple of lengths and looked like he still had plenty in reserve if needed and I fancy him to follow up here at odds of 7/4 with Coral.
Hills Of Dakota also ran here last Monday and was 2nd at 10/1 and won't be that long today! He had the re-opposing Rock Canyon and he is one from one at five furlongs. He has come back to form after a short-break and is one to take seriously if headgear continues to have same effect, having looked revitalised in first-time blinkers here last week. He runs here today at odds of 7/2 (Bet365) and off the same career-low mark of 59 and is sure to push the main selection all the way.
Dumbfounded was well fancied last time out, when he was sent off as 9/4 fav at Ffos Las four weeks ago. He found just the one (Cabuchon who runs here at 2.00) too good for him that day and went down by three lengths that day. His best work came at the end of the race, staying on, but unable to catch the winner. The extra furlong allied to the booking of Richard Hughes today points to him breaking his duck here at odds of 5/2 with BetVictor amongst others.
Of the remainder, there's not a great deal to choose from, but I've plumped for the returning Train Hard from the Mark Johnston yard. Off the track since April (yard has a 26% strike rate with horses coming off a break of 3 to 8 months) and open to improvement after no doubt benefitting from his time at home. The yard is four from eight with three year olds at Bath this season and will see this 4/1 shot (Hills) as a good chance to improve that record.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Manatee Bay / Dumbfounded @ 9.63 with Hills
Manatee Bay / Train Hard @ 13.75 with Hills
Hills Of Dakota / Dumbfounded @ 15.75 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Hills
Hills Of Dakota / Train Hard @ 22.50 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Hills