Double Dutch, 30th September 2015
After a couple of winner/runner-up crossbar rattling combos, our perseverance/patience paid off yesterday with a nice double at almost 12/1, as we had the winner and the third placed horse in both races.
Weld al Khawaneej caught the eye in the early Nursery, running on well to win by two lengths and the only surprising thing (to me, anyway) about the run was that he never shortened in price from our advised 7/2, as the money all came for our other pick Planetaria who was headed a furlong from home and went down by 2.25 lengths.
All of which meant a 7 hour wait for race 2, where I was more confident about the result and although the 6/4 favourite (adv 15/8) San Quentin made hard work of it, he hung on to score by a neck with our other runner Monopoli not collecting £200 (sorry!) a further four lengths back in third.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Weld al Khawaneej : WON at 7/2 (adv 7/2)
Planetaria : 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/1)
San Quentin : WON at 6/4 (adv 15/8)
Monopoli : 3rd at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
687 winning selections from 2448 = 28.06%
218 winning bets in 635 days = 34.33%
P/L : +116.62pts (+9.19% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last day of the month and hoping to finish on a high with these...
Although this is a trappy/competitive affair, I do like the look of Our Queenie here at 3/1 BOG. She comes here in good heart having won last time out, has already won on this track and has put some decent efforts together over this trip. She looks well treated at the weights here, carrying just 8-12 and looks the pick of the two Hannon runners in this one.
Mr Hannon has a fine record on this track with 31 winners from 166 runners (18.7% SR), with Pat Dobbs riding 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR), those running within three weeks of their last run winning 17 of 90 (18.9% SR) and LTO winners winning again on 6 of 24 occasions (25% SR), suggesting a good run from Our Queenie here this afternoon.
In opposition, I'm going with Mr Frankie, who might well still be a maiden after eight starts, but has run consistently well and this looks an easier task today. He's been knocking on the door so far, finishing in the top 3 in all bar one of his races to date. Jockey Jim Crowley has been riding well of late too, with six winners in the last fortnight.
Based on the way Mr Frankie has narrowly failed in recent contests, being outpaced in the closing stages, it is expected/hoped the step up to 1m2f might be the key to getting him into the winners enclosure and his odds of 5/1 BOG might well prove to be quite generous if his team are proven right.
A pair of LTO winners seem to be the way to go here. Top Offer took advantage of a tumbling handicap mark when romping home by the best part of four lengths on this track over 6 furlongs a week ago. He was doing all his best work late on and there was no stopping him once he got going and based on that evidence an extra furlong and 6lbs isn't going to be his undoing today.
Trainer Peter Crate has a 1-in-3 record (11/33) with his sub-5/1 A/W handicappers, of which he's 3/9 here at Kempton, 7/17 with those running within three weeks of their last run and 2/4 with LTO winners, making Top Offer of serious interest here at 3/1 BOG.
The 3 yr old filly Pacolita gets a useful 3lbs weight allowance for her age and that should help her maintain her recent fine form that has seen her in the first three home in each of her last five races since late July (12231). She ran on well late in the piece at Leicester last time out to win by three quarters of a length and with that being an apprentices' race, she's unpunished for the win.
She's 2 from 5 at this trip and has stamina in hand, having stayed 1m2f in the past and already has a decent run over this course and distance (3rd in a maiden lkast year) under her belt and at odds of 7/2 BOG, we should get a decent run for our money from Pacolita.
For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Our Queenie / Top Offer @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & Hills)
Our Queenie / Pacolita @ 17/1 (3/1 & 7/2 : Bet365 & Hills)
Mr Frankie / Top Offer @ 23/1 (5/1 & 3/1 : Bet365)
Mr Frankie / Pacolita @ 26/1 (5/1 & 7/2 : Bet365)