Double Dutch, 31st December 2013
Another good day for us yesterday as the well backed Theatrical Star (SP 7/2 from our advised 6/1!) stayed on well for the extended run-in (just 2 fences per circuit!) at Taunton yesterday to score by a good 7 lengths.
All of which meant we'd a decent stake on the following race at Haydock, where the Champ did indeed eke a bit more effort out of the 6/4 favourite Bobcatbilly to get him home by the best part of three lengths.
So, at advised/BOG prices, we landed a nice 16.5/1 double with Stan James, massively beating the 10.25/1 returns at SP and further highlighting the need to use the BOG bookies.
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Yesterday's results were as follows:
Theatrical Star: won at 6/1 adv (SP 7/2)
No Secrets: unplaced at 2/1 BOG (adv 13/8)
Bobcatbilly: won at 6/4 BOG (adv 5/4)
Saint and Sinners: 5th of 6
Results to date:
103 winning selections from 352 = 29.26%
32 winning doubles in 95 days = 33.68%
P/L : +14.40pts (+7.66% ROI)
So, we're guaranteed to head into the New Year with a double-digit profit. Let's see if we can increase that with these today:
There's little to choose here between Lord of House and Tresor de Bontee for me. Both have doubts over them, but both have plenty in their favour and as long as one of them wins, I'll be happy!
Lord of House comes here in good nick after a win over today's trip on heavy ground at Wincanton five days ago. And with conditions set to be testing in Staffordshire today, his record of three wins from four on heavy ground may well be the decisive factor. The nagging doubt with this one is the 7lb penalty shouldered for last week's win, but Gavin Sheehan can at least take 3lbs off, making him a real contender at 3/1 BOG.
Tresor de Bontee comes from the in-form Richard Lee yard and progressed nicely over hurdles last term including signing off with a course and distance win on heavy ground here in mid-March. The 9 month lay-off is a slight concern, as is the fact that it's his first attempt at the larger obstacles. You can, however, be sure that the yard will have him ready for this and previous track/trip/ground knowledge will stand him in good stead in his attempt to be a 9/4 winner.
None of the six runners here have won over hurdles yet, but the recent form of Mrs Jordan suggests she's the best on show here and is likely to be sent off as an odds on favourite, making the 5/4 on offer from Coral very attractive. Her sole win from five starts was an impressive 11 lengths victory in a bumper at Stratford three weeks ago and her third place finish over hurdles at Exeter in a decent contest won by Harry Fry's Blue Buttons was good enough to earn her a mark of 110, so she's expected to be at least half decent here.
She should appreciate the softer conditions underfoot, and the lack of any real apparent quality in the race make her the most likely to succeed.
Of the remainder, there's little encouragement for any of them, but the biggest danger is probably going to come from Tickity Bleue, who has shown some promise in each of her three starts to date. She won a bumper on debut at Newbury in March and stepped up two classes to finish second (by 2 lengths) to Glorious Twelfth in another bumper at Cheltenham six weeks later, with the winner going on to win over hurdles and has also ran in Listed company.
Tickity Bleue came back from a 7 month break to finish 4th at Uttoxeter at the end of November. That was her hurdling debut and she's expected to improve for the experience and can be readily backed at 9/4 today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Tresor de Bontee / Mrs Jordan @ 5.83/1 (Generally 9/4 & 11/10)
Tresor de Bontee / Tickity Bleue @ 9.16/1 (BetVictor 85/40 & 9/4)
Lord of House / Mrs Jordan @ 8/1 (Coral 3/1 & 5/4)
Lord of House / Tickity Bleue @ 12/1 (Stan James, BetVictor 3/1 & 9/4)