Double Dutch, 31st January 2014
We finally got back to winning ways yesterday with a pair of 9/4 victors at Wincanton.
Benny's Mist travelled the strongest in race 1, took the lead at the last and saw off all challenges to ease home by three lengths. Ultragold jumped poorly at the fourth last and weakened from that point.
An hour later, Brick Red was the winner as Aidan Coleman drove him out to a one-length success at the expense of Notarfbad, who probably surprised a few people by the way he took to the heavy conditions underfoot.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Benny's Mist: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Ultragold: 5th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Brick Red: won at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Tresor de Bontee: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
131 winning selections from 471 = 27.81%
42 winning doubles in 126 days = 33.33%
P/L : +3.32pts (+1.33% ROI)
Now we're back amongst the winners, we hope to build on yesterday's result with these from the first and last races on the card:
Mr David is the clear 5/4 BOG favourite here and he's clearly the one to beat based on his performances in his last two efforts over course and distance at decent prices. He was a 14/1 winner when running on strongly to score by 1.5 lengths almost six weeks ago when running off 82 in a 0-90 handicap and this seems the strongest single piece of form on offer today.
His most recent visit here was a 4th place finish over course and distance at 14/1, where he was edged out by 1.25 lengths in a closely run affair. The form of these two C&D efforts should easily be enough to take this, but he isn't a consistent sort and does tend to throw the odd really poor performance in, like he did at Wolverhampton in between the two races here. he just didn't seem in the mood that day and was last of three home. If he's not on his game today, that could pave the way for...
...Kuanyao to seize the initiative from the front. This confirmed front-runner is difficult to beat/pass if allowed to settle at the head of affairs and dictate the race. he comes here defending an excellent 50% strike rate on the all-weather (6 wins from 12) and if you picked a horse based on stats, he's the one. Four wins and three places from seven starts at this level and 5 wins (plus 4 places) from 11 at this trip. He has a good record over course and distance (932112) and could be very good value at 5/1 BOG.
Swift Blade was last seen winning over course and distance here a month ago, when he beat The Blue Dog by a length and a quarter. That form has been well and truly franked as the latter then went on to rattle up a seven-day hat-trick, (once over C&D and twice at the same trip).
Simon Walker is one of our top amateur jockeys and he takes the ride today, having steered this horse to victory at Goodwood on their only other meeting. Simon has a good record here at Lingfield with 10 winners from 42 rides for almost 40pts profit and he'll look to improve those stats with a 2/1 BOG win today.
Obboorr is generally a 4/1 shot here today and is the least exposed of these runners on this surface and at this trip. He was well backed when winning his on his yard & A/W debut at Kempton nine days ago, which was also his first step up to this 12f trip. He was placed in a couple of turf handicaps in the summer at a higher level than this and a combination of a return to that form combined with any natural progression for his second run at this trip and surface could make him a live threat to the main selection.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Mr David / Swift Blade @ 5.75/1 (5/4 & 2/1 generally)
Mr David / Obboorr @ 10.25/1 (5/4 & 4/1 generally)
Kuanyao / Swift Blade @ 17/1 (5/1 & 2/1 Bet365 & BetVictor)
Kuanyao / Obboorr @ 29/1 (5/1 & 4/1 Bet365 & BetVictor)