Double Dutch, 3rd October 2013
A fine day yesterday, with the picks running 1-2 twice! Well done to anyone brave (stupid?!) enough to do an exacta double..!
As it was, using the early morning odds, we recorded a 10.825/1 double.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Toner d'Oudairies: 1st at 7/4
Go All The Way: 2nd at 9/10
Extra Noble: 1st at 10/3 (SP 7/4)
Top Tug: 2nd at 7/4
Trial to date:
26 winning selections from 101 = 25.74%
7 winning doubles in 28 days = 25%
P/L : -12.78pts (-23.44% ROI)
Chris is unavailable today, and for me sand is the feature, starting in the...
This race looks to revolve around the top three in the market, and I'm (carelessly? foolishly?) overlooking the favourite, Genuine Quality, who just keeps finding one to good. She might improve for this deeper surface on her first try at the track, but there are other options that I think can see her off. Namely, Britain and Scarborough.
Clearly one for the geographers and/or Unionists, this pair both boast an unbeaten one from one track record. At Southwell, course form is king and, whilst others have yet to prove they can't handle it, these have proven they can.
They've little in the way of weight to carry, and have two fine all weather pilots in Jimmy Quinn and Cathy 'no legs' Gannon. Britain is a general 9/2 shot and Scarborough is 6/1.
I fear Genuine Quality but am happy enough to take her on.
I'm not brave/stupid enough to take two favourites on in this bet, and here I'm siding with the unexposed Upper Grosvenor - again a first time starter at Southwell - and the proven level of form of Hannah's Turn.
The first-named is trained by hot trainer Roger Varian. Varian has seen fifteen of his last nineteen runners make the top four in their races, and this chap figures to go close too. He won at Kempton last time, on his first try at sprint distances after a massive three furlong turn back. That's a rarity, and he steps up from five to six, which should well within his compass.
Hannah's Turn has run here at Southwell five times... and she's won four of them, two over this trip. The one negative potentially is that she's rocketed up the weights - that'll happen if you win by six lengths, as she did on her last attempt at this course and distance. If she can cope with her revised rating, she may be the one to beat.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Britain / Upper Grosvenor @ 14.47 Betfred
Britain / Hannah's Turn @ 33 with Betfred
Scarborough / Upper Grosvenor @ 20.16 with 888sport
Scarborough / Hannah's Turn @ 42 with 888sport