Double Dutch, 3rd September 2015
Shocking. Absolutely shocking. There's no other way to describe it really. Racing can be an incredibly frustrating game sometimes, and yesterday was one of those days. Lily Waugh was going to win before falling at the second last, but that shouldn't detract from the poor effort by Layla's Emperor - probably wants further - and the lamentable ride on Suni Dancer in leg two...
...or from the fact that it's just not happening for Double Dutch, and for us, at the moment.
Ground conditions are very changeable at the moment, which is making life tricky - most clerks of the course are covering their proverbials by using the 'xyz in places' caveat. In those cases, I tend to err towards the 'in places' definition because it's normally a ploy to stop trainers withdrawing horses (sadly).
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Lily Waugh : FELL at 11/10 (adv 5/4)
Urcalin : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Layla's Emperor : 3rd at 6/5 (adv 11/8)
Suni Dancer : 4th at 8/1 (adv 6/1)
Results to date:
662 winning selections from 2361 = 28.04%
209 winning bets in 612 days = 34.15%
P/L : +96.58pts (+7.89% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Onwards and upwards... and, despite everything, I'm strangely optimistic about today's pair.
An early start today with an interesting little novice stakes race at Salisbury on soft ground. Justice Law is an obvious contender, having won a maiden on soft ground over seven furlongs - a race that is working out well. This extra furlong should be should be right up his street, and his trainer is in good form.
The ground is a concern for Zodiakos, a son of Kodiac, and though he's well fancied I pass him over in favour of Charlie Hills' Bell Heather. This daughter of Iffraaj was an easy winner on heavy ground over a mile. So no worries on the trip, though heavy ground can often accentuate a winning - or losing - performance. Still, her prominent running style and guaranteed stamina are fine attributes, and the time that day was relatively good. She looks a value option.
This Group 3 is a decent contest, as usual, and the market is headed by hugely impressive York scorer, Mayfair Lady. She pulverized a big field of nursery types there, and this is a step up in class, but the time was outstanding in the context of this field, and it was very much on the soft side of 'good to soft' that day. She's won her last two races by an aggregate of twelve lengths (!).
If for any reason Fahey's filly fails to fire, Hannon's horse has a hope (apologies for laboured alliteration!). Specifically, Whatdoiwantthatfor, winner of a soft ground Listed race last time having been third in Group 3 company - also on soft - the time before. She returns to six furlongs after that last day triumph over five, with the form of her third in the Princess Margaret, behind Besharah and Great Page, looking rock solid.
The winner has since won the Group 2 Lowther in commanding fashion at York, and the second won a Group 3 in France next time. She handles the soft, has bags of stamina on the dam side of her pedigree, and her form is very good.
Lots of improvers underneath, but they'll need to come on plenty to surpass the established form of the selections, both of whom can move forward themselves.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Justice Law / Mayfair Lady @ 7.52/1 (9/4 & 13/8 : PP)
Justice Law / Whatdoiwantthatfor@ 12/1 (9/4 & 3/1 : BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Bell Heather / Mayfair Lady @ 14/1 (11/2 & 11/8 : bet365, Skybet, Racebets)
Bell Heather / Whatdoiwantthatfor @ 21.5/1 (11/2 & 3/1 : bet365, Skybet, Racebets)