Double Dutch, 4th August 2015
Good Morning everyone, firstly I kick off with an apology about yesterday. I'd been in Majorca on a "working break" (working by the pool beats rainy East Lancashire hands down!), but a loss of wifi at the hotel and a 2hr flight delay meant I hadn't got the double online before 11.00am.
This meant that Matt had to jump in at the last minute and not only was it one of the poorest days of racing for a long time, his hands were pretty tied into going to the evening meetings only, due to timings etc.
So, despite another frustrating near miss, I thought he did rather well at trying to land a 19/1 double via two awful contests! As it was, it was another one of those winner/runner-up combo days, that did at least reward those doing the forecasts/exactas with a nice 1-2 finish at Windsor.
"Normal" service/timings today, but hopefully a change in luck for me.
Monday's results were as follows:
Kenny The Captain : 2nd at 5/2 (adv 4/1)
Blue Jacket : 4th at 3/1 (adv 16/5)
Uele River : WON at 3/1 (adv 3/1)
Burmese : 2nd at 9/4 (adv 16/5)
The Exacta paid £12.70 here.
Results to date:
642 winning selections from 2265 = 28.34%
202 winning bets in 587 days = 34.41%
P/L : +117.28pts (+9.99% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Tuesday's selected races are as follows...
Duke Street has been in imperious form of late, not only running well but proving to be very versatile too. He has finished 14111 in his last five starts, including wins over 12 and 14 furlongs before winning his last two at today's two mile trip. The four wins came on Wolverhampton's Tapeta, Chelmsford's Polytrack and on soft ground at Chepstow last time out, so Good to Soft here shouldn't be an issue, nor should the trip.
He's up another 8lb for his recent form to a mark of 77, but does get a very healthy 15lbs weight for age allowance and when you combine his trainer's (Mark Johnston) record with 3 yr olds in longer distance open age handciaps with the way Duke Street comfortably got home by four lengths last time out, then this one has to be on the shortlist here at 5/2 BOG.
He may, however, struggle to concede 2lbs to another well-treated 3 yr old in the guise of the 15/8 BOG favourite Amour de Nuit, whose trainer Sir Mark Prescott is 5/14 with 3yr olds in handicaps here at Ripon and is also another of the leading exponents at exploiting the WFA "loophole".
Amour de Nuit won at the first time of trying 2m at Lingfield last time out, just about getting home by a neck staying on well despite having to cahnge course a couple of times in a race that offered little room at the head of affairs. Prior to that, he'd finished 2nd over 1m5f and 1m6f, outpaced in the midsection on both occasions, but staying on strongly at the finish, suggesting that this is his best trip and with the benefit of having that run at Lingfield, could well imrpove further today.
Bertie Blu Boy is certainly towards the upper reaches of his capabilites here off a mark of 83 less a 7lb claim, but the return to familiar racing conditions might just eke a little more out of him again this evening. He effectively runs off the same mark as a 0.75 length defeat as a runner-up over this track and trip last time out (2 weeks ago).
I've nothing against Rob Hornby, who rode him last time (in fact, I rate him pretty highly off his 5lb claim), but Kevin Lundie just seems to get a bit more out of the horse, winning 6 of their 10 races together, including a perfect three from three record here at Chelmsford. They have won together over course and distance and that was at a grade higher than this two starts ago. This says that if Kevin can get a similar level of performance from Bertie Blu Boy as that run then they've every chance at 5/2 BOG.
He is, of course, totally exposed and vulnerable to one with less miles on the clock and that could well be the 7/2 BOG shot Elis Eliz, who interests me here based on her dropping down to 5f for the first time, after three consecutive close defeats in third place over 6f at Class 2, 3 and 4! In each of those 6f runs, she's been found wanting late on, especially when caught and headed in the closing stages here over course and distance at a higher grade last time out.
She was partnered by the in-form Andrea Atzeni for the first time that day and I'm pleased to see him back in the saddle today, having gained some valuable knowledge about the horse from last time. It is also worth noting that Andrea is 12/49 on the A/W for Michael Wigham (11/23 at odds below 9/2!), suggesting a good run from Elis Eliz again today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Amour de Nuit / Bertie Blu Boy @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : BetWay)
Amour de Nuit / Elis Eliz @ 11.94/1 (15/8 & 7/2 : BetWay & Paddy Power)
Duke Street / Bertie Blu Boy @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet, Boylesports & Stan James)
Duke Street / Elis Eliz @ 14.75/1 (5/2 & 7/2 : BetVictor, Boylesports & Stan James)