Double Dutch, 4th December 2015
Another good bad day, on both a personal and professional level. The good was 7/1 Aachen claiming leg one to take his heavy ground tally to four from four. The bad was The Geegeez Geegee failing to lift a leg in the deep mud at Market Rasenm and Falcarragh looking gone at the game. Compounding the misery was Palm Grey's win, him being a very close second choice to Falcarragh in my estimates (and available at 6/1 last night).
So we missed a 55/1 double, and we try again on Friday. Sigh...
Thursday's results were as follows:
Aachen : WON at 7/1 (adv 11/2)
Spending Time: 2nd at 6/5 (adv 15/8)
Falcarragh : 3rd at 10/1 (adv 6/1)
The Geegeez Geegee : 4th at 5/4 (adv 11/8)
Results to date:
746 winning selections from 2666 = 27.99%
235 winning bets in 691 days = 34.06%
P/L : +91.3pts (+6.77% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Get set for the weekend with this double double...
Very good race, this. Plenty of unexposed horses, which means it's deeper than just the nominated pair, but I like both a fair bit. Francis Of Assisi was pitched in against experienced Grade 1 animals last time and ran with credit in fourth. Dropped back into novice company, albeit Grade 2 novices, he should go very close on ground that he copes with (though may not be ideal) and for a trainer in great form.
Clondaw Cian would probably be favourite for this if trained by a big stable, but Suzy Smith is a relative unknown. This fellow ran second in a bumper that is working out well, and is unbeaten in two above average races - a bumper and a novice hurdle, both on soft ground. Trip and ground will be spot on, and he's an exciting prospect.
Dangers abound, perhaps most notably the Skeltons' Captain Chaos.
Another high class novice event, this time over fences. Soft ground will greet the field of eight and that will suit some more than others. It will certainly suit Golden Doyen, who won a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham on it. He's been in fair form without winning so far and, if not being lined up to get a handicap mark for the novices' handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival ought to be involved.
Favourite Calipto might have won the Triumph Hurdle two years ago but for a broken leather on his jockey's stirrup, and that does somewhat characterize a career in which he's won just once since. That victory was in a novice chase and he again ran with promise behind the very good Garde La Victoire at Chelters last time. His best form is mostly on soft.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Francis Of Assisi / Calipto @ 8.38/1 (11/4 & 6/4 : bet365, Boyle, SJ)
Francis Of Assisi / Golden Doyen @ 17.75/1 (11/4 & 4/1 : totesport, Betfred) (18.25/1 Ladbrokes (non-BOG)
Clondaw Cian / Calipto @ 9.31/1 (10/3 & 11/8 : Coral, Hills)
Clondaw Cian / Golden Doyen @ 20.65/1 (10/3 & 4/1 : Victor, Coral, Hills)