Double Dutch, 4th November 2015
No surprises to read that yesterday was yet another winner/placer combo!
We got the 1-2 as expected in the opener and the consolation of a 5.7/1 exacta, but our hopes of a 15.5/1 double were dashed by a 5 length defeat at Wolverhampton.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Incurs Four Faults : WON at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Schottische : 2nd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
The Exacta paid £6.70 here.
Broughtons Berry : 3rd at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Feeltherhythm : 11th at 6/1 (adv 11/4)
Results to date:
715 winning selections from 2566 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 665 days = 33.98%
P/L : +97.64pts (+7.35% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Wednesday's selected races...
Net Work Rouge was solid and consistent over timber last season, if not entirely successful, before a couple of lacklustre efforts over the bigger obstacles in May and September of this year. He then returned to hurdles action three weeks ago and whilst you can only beat what you're faced with, he was a winner by 27 lengths, despite being eased right down. Such was his command of the race, the other four finishers that day were 27, 55, 67 and 77 lengths behind him!
Obviously he bears a penalty for that victory, but if coming here in the same frame of mind and running like he did, then the extra weight shouldn't be enough to anchor him here and I think he's a pretty solid pick at around 5/2 BOG to give the in-form Kim Bailey another winner from his only runner of the day.
The one most likely to get close would probably be Dan Emmett by process of elimination. A Plein Temps looks the type to do well, but might need the experience of a debut run under Rules before I'd want to back him, whilst Gorsky Island will probably need the pipe opener after 196 days off the track.
Which brings us back to Dan Emmett, admittedly still a maiden over hurdles after four attempts, but is rated at 120, just like Net Work Rouge and receives 7lbs from the selection here. He has been consistent in defeat over timber and his best run came two hurdle starts ago when second of eight over three miles at Ludlow on the only occasion he has been asked to run further than 2m4f.
He hasn't seen a hurdle for 198 days, but has had the benfit of a run over 2m in a flat handicap at Newbury 12 days ago. 2m is clearly far too sharp for him, but he acquitted himself well enough without being disgraced, although ultimately well beaten, as you'd expect. All things considered, Dan Emmett's current 9/1 BOG price looks very fair indeed and he might well be worth an E/W punt for those that way inclined.
I expect this to boil down to a shootout betweeen two old rivals this evening.
Grendisar and Fire Fighting were the first two home in this contest last season, with the former prevailing by just a neck and he's actually 11lbs better off this time around. Since then, he has finished 211 in three A/W Listed contests, and was only three qqarters of a length away from landing a Group 3 race, when beaten by Tryster, who is 2 from 3 since. If Grendisar can make the swing in weight work to his advantage, then he can retain this race at 15/8 BOG.
Fire Fighting, on the other hand, is as surprisingly long as 9/2 BOG in places and has to be the value call. He may well be much worse off than when losing here last year, but did beat Grendisar by over 6 lengths two starts ago and comes here off the back of a Listed contest at Dundalk last time out, beating some decent sorts by 5 lengths or more.
Fire Fighting clearly brings the best form to the table and this could be a really interesting battle, especially as both Grendisar and Fire Fighting are likely to be held up for a late run, hopefully giving us a cracking finish (a 1-2 would be nice!)
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Net Work Rouge / Grendisar @ 9.06/1 (5/2 & 15/8 : Bet365)
Net Work Rouge / Fire Fighting @ 16.88/1 (9/4 & 9/2 : generally)
Dan Emmett / Grendisar @ 27.75/1 (9/1 & 15/8 : Hills)
Dan Emmett / Fire Fighting @ 49/1 (9/1 & 4/1 : Hills)