Double Dutch, 5th December 2014
One winner from two races again yesterday, unfortunately, as the well backed Make Me A Fortune (11/8 from 9/4) won our second race by a comfortable 8 lengths, as a hike in the weights took its toll on Qasser who weakened badly late on to eventually finish fourth, a good 22 lengths off the pace.
And a similar story had already unfolded 20 minutes earlier as Ballydague Lady failed to cope with being turned out under a penalty two after a win, as she emptied out rather quickly after having had every chance 2 from home. She capitulated to such an extent hat she came home 4th of 6 finishers, 25 lengths behind the winner and 22 lengths clear of last place.
The horse not to finish was our other pick Easy Beesy, who was, in fairness, a bit of a nightmare ride for Gavin Sheehan. He didn't travel well at all and had to be cajoled from an early stage of the race, before doing his best on several occasions to get rid of Gavin, a feat he finally achieved 3 fences from home. Easy Beesy never looked like an even money favourite and his team have work to do there.
Thursday's results were as follows:
Ballydague Lady: 4th at 7/2 (adv 51/20)
Easy Beesy: UR at Evens (adv 7/4)
Make Me A Fortune: won at 11/8 (adv 9/4)
Qasser: 4th at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
425 winning selections from 1482 = 28.68%
135 winning bets in 385 days = 35.06%
P/L : +75.94pts (+9.84% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are my two evening A/W races for Friday...
Mick Appleby's Heska won here over C&D last Saturday under Luke Morris who rides him again today, and the third placed horse from that race, Thane Of Cawdor, left it too late at Kempton last night and was beaten by just a neck. This race today looks a weaker affair than last Saturday's C&D contest and although Heska has been hit with a 7lb penalty for that win, he's the form horse here and should give us a good run for our money at 9/4 BOG.
The main threat will come from Dire Straits who was a runner up here over course and distance a month ago in a race he should arguably have won. He holds a couple of today's rivals on past form and both his trainer, Chris Wall and his jockey Ted Durcan have good records here at the track. He's a better horse than 0/7 would suggest and having been the runner-up twice in his last three starts, Dire Straits is the one at 15/8 BOG most likely to take advantage if Heska can't carry the weight.
It's Friday evening at Dundalk, so it has to be trainer Mick Halford and jockey Shane Foley, right? They're both bang in form and have terrific records here at this track. They team up three times tonight, but their chance is likely to be with Banna Boirche, who just loves it here. He has won 8 of 14 races over 7f/1m on this track and is 3/7 over course and distance (1m), whilst Shane Foley has been on board for 7 of those 8 wins.
He raced here three weeks ago after a lengthy absence and although was 6th of 8 over C&D that night, he was only beaten by a length and three quarters in a tight finish. That run will have done him good and he's well treated at the weights based on past efforts here and with his handlers being in rich form, you just wouldn't be surprised if Banna Boirche won at 11/4 BOG tonight.
I was then torn between Antiquus and Akasaka as my other pick here, but two recent good runs at this venue have made me plump for the the latter. Six of Akasaka's seven career wins have come here at Dundalk, with three course and distance wins to his name. He was third in a claimer a month ago over a too-sharp 7f, but still might have won if not squeezed for room and slightly hampered. he was bought out of the Lynam yard that night and subsequently finished as runner-up over C&D on his debut for new yard here nine days ago.
His new handler might be able to get a bit more from him and he's partnered by the same 7lb claimer as last time out, who might also have benefited from a first ride aboard this horse. There seems to be some value in the 9/2 BOG price currently available for Akasaka.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Heska / Banna Boirche @ 11.19/1 (9/4 & 11/4 : Coral)
Heska / Akasaka @ 15.50/1 (2/1 & 9/2 : Ladbrokes, Hills & Betfair SB)
Dire Straits / Banna Boirche @ 8.34/1 (15/8 & 9/4 : Boylesports)
Dire Straits / Akasaka @ 14.81/1 (15/8 & 9/2 : Boylesports)