Double Dutch, 5th December 2015
Bizarre yesterday, as we had two well backed runners both beaten, and couldn't get any of the four in the first two. Bizarre, and somewhat disappointing.
Friday's results were as follows:
Francis Of Assisi: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 11/4)
Clondaw Cian: 4th at 13/8 (adv 10/3)
Calipto: 3rd at 11/8 (adv 6/4)
Golden Doyen : 4th at 9/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
746 winning selections from 2670 = 27.94%
235 winning bets in 692 days = 33.96%
P/L : +89.3pts (+6.46% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Grade 1 action today, starting with the...
Simonsig's defection leaves seven in what is still a very high class renewal of the Tingle Creek. I backed Special Tiara early in the week and still think he offers some value with conditions to suit. He likes to bowl along in front, and should be unhurried in that role, even though the likes of Mr Mole and Josses Hill - both questionable jumpers - can make it too on occasion.
Special Tiara is fully effective on good through to soft, has a Grade 1 course and distance win to his name just two starts back, and should be spot on after a pipe opener at Navan four weeks ago.
The main danger looks like Vibrato Valtat, a horse who looked really promising as a novice in the early part of last season, but who had perhaps had enough when the Festivals came around. He was fifteen lengths behind ST in the Celebration Chase here in April, but is a much fresher beast now. Still progressive, he'll have to step forward on what he's shown thus far, and is capable of that.
This Class 2 staying handicap has some strong established form mixed in with some progressive younger sorts. I'll take one of each. First, Wakea represents the in-form Jeremy Noseda barn. Noseda has a 31.76% strike rate at Wolves since 2009, and has a positive ROI in both the short term overall and here in that long term.
This chap returns to a surface where he's three from four, second on the other occasion; and he has been freshened up by a little break after a couple of sub-par efforts on turf, where he's never actually won. The feeling persists that he's an all weather horse through and through (despite a very nice turf pedigree), and he has strong claims off top weight.
At the other end of the handicap is Ballynanty, for Andrew Balding. Having just his fifth run, and first in a handicap, the three-year-old son of Yeats bolted up by seven lengths in a mile and a half maiden at Lingfield last time. He looks a very strong stayer and is the least exposed in the field.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Special Tiara / Wakea @ 14.16/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : PP)
Special Tiara / Ballynanty @ 18.49/1 (7/2 & 10/3 : Hills)
Vibrato Valtat / Wakea @ 9.5/1 (2/1 & 5/2 : PP, general)
Vibrato Valtat / Ballynanty @ 11.99/1 (2/1 & 10/3 : Hills, Victor)