Double Dutch, 5th January 2015
Saturday seemed to typify the way the rest of last week went. In all honesty, I struggled to find two suitable races for the Double Dutch, but I felt that Paul Nicholls would land the Wincanton race with one of his two strong contenders in a six-runner race.
By process of elimination, I then ended up with a mares' bumper for race 2, the kind of race I normally give a very wide berth to, so you know what happened, don't you?
Yes, we got the winner of the bumper and she had drifted nicely out to 3/1 from our advised 15/8 and we had the third placed horse for good measure, but we'd already departed Wincanton empty handed, as the Nicholls runners could only finish 3rd and 4th of the 6 runners, well beaten by 8 and 14 lengths respectively.
A headscratcher, that's for sure!
Saturday's results were as follows:
Black River: 3rd at 15/8 (adv 13/8)
Rebel Rebellion: u/p at 4/1 (adv 6/1)
The Way It Works: won at 3/1 (adv 15/8)
Monbeg Dolly: 3rd at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Results to date:
451 winning selections from 1574 = 28.65%
141 winning bets in 408 days = 34.56%
P/L : +81.92pts (+10.05% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I don't want the ROI to dip below the psychological 10% barrier, so we could do with a couple of winners from these regal selections today......
The 12 yr old King Edmund might be enjoying an Indian Summer to his career and despite carrying penalty weight and conceding a stone to his rivals, looks the one to beat at 7/4 BOG today.
He has been in great form over the last year, winning once and placing six times from 10 efforts over fences, but has reverted to hurdles for his last two runs, of which he has won both and he was also a runner-up over hurdles back in April. So in the last year he has three wins and seven places from just 13 efforts. (Win 23.1%, Place 76.9%)
King Edmund is also 1/1 here at Lingfield, 2/6 on heavy ground (2311 in last 4 runs), has a good record in this grade and if coping with the extra weight, should just edge out...
...Krakatoa King who has finished second in his two hurdles runs to date, beaten by half a length at Plumpton in November (2m5f, heavy) before a 1.5 length defeat at the same track & trip on heavy ground, where King Edmund was the winner. Krakatoa King is now a pound better off today and that might just be the decisive factor, as the favourite attempts to lug 11-12 through the mud.
Krakatoa King clearly likes the heavy ground and they way he was staying on last time out suggests the step up in trip to 2m 7f shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience here. If pushed, I'd say he was a close second choice at 2/1 BOG.
My stat-based micro-systems tell me that this should be a two-horse race between Aye Well (11/4 BOG) and the 9/4 BOG favourite Blackwater King and the bookies would seem to agree with the next horse in the betting being out at 11/2.
Aye Well is trained by Stuart Coltherd, whose handicap chasers are 24/139 (17.3% SR) for 78.8pts (+56.7% ROI) over the last four years and 20/70 for 57.5pts below 8/1.
This 10 yr old came of the back of a 690 day absence to make a chasing debut at Kelso in November, finishing a promising third before a couple of efforts at Newcastle, where he was a runner-up (beaten by half a length) well clear of subsequent winners and he looked to be going really well before running out of steam last time out.
Stamina might possibly hold the key to that poor finish last time, so a drop back in trip might just help him get going again. He has some decent hurdling form at this trip, likes the soft ground and with just 10 races under his belt, has hardly been overworked as a 10 yr old!
Blackwater King represents Donald McCain whose own chasers are 10/34 (29.4% SR) for 40.5pts (+119.1% ROI) over the past four years and this horse looked set for victory at Southwell last time before falling 4 from home after making all and bowling along nicely at the head of affairs.
He has been given 12 weeks to get over that incident and provided his confidence hasn't been shaken too much, he stands an excellent chance over a trip and ground conditions that seem to suit him best from past experience.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
King Edmund / Blackwater King @ 8.90/1 (7/4 & 13/5 : Betbright)
King Edmund / Aye Well @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Paddy Power)
Krakatoa King / Blackwater King @ 9.80/1 (2/1 & 13/5 : Betbright)
Krakatoa King / Aye Well @ 9.95/1 (2/1 & 53/20 : Betbright)