Double Dutch, 5th January 2016
Our recent run of frustrating mear misses continued yesterday at Ludlow, with Magical Man's defeat by just a neck after a 3 mile have ground slog being the difference between what we got (ie nothing) and what we could have had (ie a double at 9.5/1)
Monday's results were as follows:
Cloonacool : WON at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Ink Master : 5th at 85/40 (adv 10/3)
Magical Man : 2nd at 11/8 (adv 2/1)
Salut Honore : 3rd at 7/2 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
771 winning selections from 2762 = 27.91%
240 winning bets in 715 days = 33.57%
P/L : +76.04pts (+5.32% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Todd's last two efforts on the A/W have both been over this trip and have seen him win at Kempton and then narrowly fail by a nose whilst trying to defy a 6lb rise in weight over this course and distance almost three weeks ago. He was just outstayed by the stamina-laden Ian Williams runner Cotillon, who has since proven his durability by landing back to back 2m4f hurdles in treacherous conditions. I'd expect a similar level of performance from Todd to be enough here at 3/1 BOG.
The reliable/consistent Tempuran is the one I fancy to give Todd the biggest challenge. He has been running really well on the A/W of late, finishing 1222 in his last four runs, beaten by just 05, 0.75 and 0.5 lengths respectively, the latter two races over 16.5 & 16f, so we know he gets the trip. Jockey Oisin Murphy rides this track well with a near-17% strike rate over the last two years and will surely fancy his chances of improving his figures with a win at 7/2 BOG on board Tempuran today.
Swift Cedar (9/4 BOG) and Ralphy's Lad were the first two home over this course and distance a fortnight ago when we last saw Swift Cedar in action. He won by 2.25 lengths that day and since then, the third placed horse, The Lock Master, who was a further length back, has stepped up in class to win here over track and trip (New Year's Day), suggesting it wasn't a bad race to win in the first place.
Ralphy's Lad has also had a run since, also stepped up in class to C3 over course and distance and was a runner-up again. He now meets Swift Cedar 4lbs better off as he drops back down in class and as such is my pick here at 3/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Todd / Swift Cedar @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 : generally)
Todd / Ralphy's Lad @ 15/1 (3/1 & 3/1 : generally)
Tempuran / Swift Cedar @ 13.63/1 (7/2 & 9/4 : generally)
Tempuran / Ralphy's Lad @ 17/1 (7/2 & 3/1 : generally)