Double Dutch, 5th June 2014
No joy yesterday, I'm afraid and not even a winner from the four selections. Both Orsm and Torran Sound were proposed at 11/4 BOG, both were backed into 2/1 at the off and both fell victim to a 10/1 shot who travelled and stayed best of the 8 runners in what became an attritional slog over 3m3f on ground that seemed a little slower than the advertised good / good to soft.
As it was, Orsm, was our better runner, staying on to close within a length and a half of the winner, but unable to completely close the four length deficit he had at the penultimate hurdle. Torran Sound weakened late on to finish third, around 30 lengths behind the winner.
Meanwhile, over at Nottingham, third and fourth was the best I could manage as neither Camelopardalis nor Rockweiller exactly covered themselves in glory, beaten by 7 and 10 lengths respectively. Rockweiller was already beaten at the 2 pole, whilst Camelopardalis (5/4 fav from our 9/4 advice) seemed to have every chance, but soon weakened when asked for an effort.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Orsm: 2nd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Torran Sound: 3rd at 2/1 (adv 11/4)
Camelopardalis: u/p at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
Rockweiller: u/p at 11/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
248 winning selections from 894 = 27.74%
79 winning bets in 233 days = 33.91%
P/L : +34.88pts (+7.52% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are my selections for Thursday...
Not the easiest race to call, but I like King of the Danes here, as he has shown signs of late that he's coming back into form. He won over this trip at Goodwood a year ago and was hit with a 12lb hike in weights and although winless since then (5 starts), he has been running off higher marks than he's comfortable with and at 2 classes higher than today.
He drops down from Class 2 to Class 4 today and has also been eased another couple of pounds, putting him just 3lbs higher than he was for that comfortable 6 lengths victory at Goodwood. These factors, allied to trainer Mark Johnston's excellent record at this track suggest a decent effort at 5/2 BOG.
I was, however, surprised to see Shouranour as long as 3/1 BOG with BetVictor here and I'll take this one as my alternate at the main expense of Another For Joe, who despite having a good course and distance record looks to have too much weight to carry at the moment.
Shouranour was a decent performer in Ireland, finishing second in a couple of decent maidens for John Oxx. He came tot he UK off the back of a 285-day break to run for David O'Meara at Newcastle just over a fortnight ago and was disgraced at all.
He was only headed inside the final furlong, before slipping to a 3 length defeat back in third place. The drop back (1f) in trip should help him here, as should the fact that he's back running again after a lengthy lay-off.
John Gosden has a good record here at this track with a near 40% strike rate and he has a good chance of improving those figures with Grandest (2/1 BOG) today. Grandest has already won here over 7f and return to this course 2lbs lower than when last seen at Yarmouth five weeks ago.
The good to firm ground was probably a little too quick for him that day and this is more suitable, especially with a 3lb drop in weight. Robert Havlin was on board for that win on his last visit here and he's in the saddle again today looking to extend a remarkable run of 16 consecutive placed efforts (6 wins) aboard the Gosden runners at Southwell (113311 in his last six for the trainer here).
Rainbow Rock ran really well last time out, when making his seasonal reappearance after a break of almost 8 months. He finished third that day, beaten by 2 lengths and just three parts of a length behind Tower Power who was a good winner at Ripon on Tuesday.
Rainbow Rock lost second place close to home that day and the slight drop back in track should be to his advantage, as should the benefit of having had the run a fortnight ago. He looks very favourably treated off 70 for his handicap debut (Tower Power won off 70 at Ripon) and has good claims here at 11/4 BOG with Hills.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
King of the Danes / Grandest @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : PP)
King of the Danes / Rainbow Rock @ 12.13/1 (5/2 & 11/4 : Hills)
Shouranour / Grandest @ 11/1 (3/1 & 2/1 : BetVictor)
Shouranour / Rainbow Rock @ 13/1 (3/1 & 5/2 : BetVictor)