Double Dutch, 5th November 2015
Another proverbial "game of two halves" yesterday as once more we had an unpaired winner.
The day started really well with Net Work Rouge beating Dan Emmett by 3.5 lengths with the third place horse the same distance further behind, giving us a 5/2 win to take to race 2 plus a 22.8/1 exacta for those playing the exotics and a small profit for those of you who followed me into an E/W bet on Dan Emmett at 9/1!
I thought Kempton's leg of the double would be tight between Fire Fighting and Grendisar and they were only 1.75 lengths and one place apart, but unfortunately there was three other runners ahead of them, as that 1.75 length gap between our chosen two was also the margin of defeat for Fire Fighting in a tight race where all nine runners were only 6.5 lengths apart from first to last.
Wednesday's results were as follows:
Net Work Rouge : WON at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Dan Emmett : 2nd at 13/2 (adv 9/1)
The Exacta paid £23.80 here.
Fire Fighting : 4th at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
Grendisar : 5th at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Results to date:
716 winning selections from 2570 = 27.86%
226 winning bets in 666 days = 33.93%
P/L : +95.64pts (+7.19% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
These are Thursday's selected races...
The Cobbler Swayne is interesting here, as he tackles fences for the first time, but has won over 3m of soft ground in an Irish PTP race, before embarking on his race career, suggesting neither jumping nor stamina should be an issue here. He looked to be going really well at Carlisle last time out, returning from a 7-month absence, but through no fault of his own, was badly hampered and brought down.
Obviously, I can't say he was denied a win, but he was travelling very strongly and with less traffic to contend with with today (only 7 rivals as opposed to 13 LTO), there should be less of a chance of another runner getting in his way and in what doesn't look too strong a contest, The Cobbler Swayne has every chance at 9/4 BOG.
Another lightly raced/unexposed sort is Court Dismissed, who was gently introduced to fences on his last outing, also at Carlisle. It was clear from a good way out that the 2m trip was inadequate and he struggled with the pace of the contest, but jumped well throughout, which suggests he'll do the same again today. He was also coming off the back of a 5 months rest, so could very well have needed a run.
Prior to that chase debut, he had run consistently well, making the frame in both bumpers contested, before finishes of 31242 in his five hurdles runs. He "gets" 2m4f well enough and his sole win to date was at this class 4 level and Court Dismissed is my Plan B at 4/1 BOG, especially with his trainer's excellent record at this track.
Master Neo won this race last year on similarly soft ground as he'll face today and he's now a 1lb lighter than he was for that win where he beat the consistent (at this level, at least) American Legend by 20 lengths. He was only beaten by three quarters of a length here over 2m 5.5f on his reappearance from a break in September, but was a faller on his only run since.
He has fallen in the past and then returned without his confidence dented too much and provided that's the case here and he runs to the levels he's capable of, then Master Neo has every chance of retaining this race at 3/1 BOG.
But he'll have to see off the in-form 2/1 BOG favourite Ready Token to do so. He closed out his summer campaign with a 3.5 length made-all win at Fontwell over 3m 1.5f, before going down by two necks in third place at Ffos Las. Both those runs were in June of this year and the winner of that Ffos Las race, Clubs Are Trumps, went on to win his next two races.
Ready Token then took a 109-day break before resurfacing here at Market Rasen a month ago, where he ran out a 15 lengths winner over course and distance and he really could have won by much more, making him a very live contender here, despite a 9lb rise in the weights.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
The Cobbler Swayne / Ready Token @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Bet365)
The Cobbler Swayne / Master Neo @ 11.50/1 (85/40 & 3/1 : BetVictor)
Court Dismissed / Ready Token @ 14/1 (4/1 & 2/1 : generally)
Court Dismissed / Master Neo @ 19/1 (4/1 & 3/1 : Hills)