Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 5th September 2015

It may come as a collective relief that today will be my last day for now in the Double Dutch chair. Yesterday very well summed up recent form, as horses nominated at 7/4 and 7/2 returned 10/11 and 6/4... and still both got beaten.

Well, faint heart never won fair maiden and, with just a hint of tilt, we'll go at a brave brace today. After all, if the odds on pokes are getting beaten we might as well... :-/

Friday's results were as follows:

Silent Attack : 7th at 10/11 (adv 7/4)
Dark Shot : 3rd at 5/2 (adv 15/8)
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Landwade Lad : 2nd at 6/4 (adv 7/2)
Khusoosy : 5th at 7/2 (adv 5/2)

Results to date:
662 winning selections from 2369 = 27.94%
209 winning bets in 614 days = 34.04%

Stakes: 1227.50pts
Returns: 1320.08pts
P/L : +92.58pts (+7.54% ROI)

REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS

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Quarter of an hour will separate these two sandy setups, starting with the...

5.30 Wolverhampton :

I'm sticking with Saeed bin Suroor, who had a 13/2 winner yesterday despite it not being one of the pair I nominated (no surprise, given the recent way of things). In this heat, he runs Yours Truly in a handicap for the first time. In the past year, bin Suroor has saddled 11 handicap first timers, with five of them winning, and only two finishing out of the frame. On that score alone, this 6/1 shot in a place is interesting.

But there's more. Having been tonked over ten and twelve furlongs, he drops back to a mile, a distance over which he was beaten just three lengths on debut. That's a full half mile shorter than his previous run and, by Dark Angel, it might be the trip for which he was bred.

Form pick is the hat-trick seeking Omotesando (easy for you to say!). Mark Brisbourne doesn't have the team he once did, but he's a capable handler with the right material, as a 30% place rate this year suggests. This fellow won over course and distance two starts back - by six lengths. More materially in this apprentice race, his two wins have both been for today's claiming jockey, Charlie Bennett. I know nothing about him, except that he clearly gets on well with his mount and, off a mark just nine pounds higher than that track/trip demolition, he's sure to go well again, from box one.

*

5.45 Kempton :

Quarter of an hour later, bin Suroor and Buick will be our main hopes, courtesy of the aptly named New Strategy. This one is also on a hat-trick, and also won over course distance - last time out in this grade, in his case - so his chance is obvious. A four pound rise is hardly insurmountable and, while trap nine isn't the best, Buick has shown great track craft from wide holes already this season.

I think the jolly has a really good chance in a field of largely exposed types. One who could step forward on a first all weather start for almost three years, is Mezzotint. There's been money for him already, which should be respected given he's trained by the shrewd Stuart Williams. From a form perspective, his Kempton runs way back yonder were 122, the pair of silvers achieved off nine pounds higher mark. He's been in fair form this season, and if the return to Kempton Sands springs a revival, he could be very well handicapped for an 8/1 chance.

Obviously, caveat emptor on today's pair but I think it's worth the chance on a very competitive day, even by Saturday standards.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Yours Truly / New Strategy @ 16.34/1 (7/4 & 11/2 : totesport)
Yours Truly / Mezzotint @ 57.5/1 (11/2 & 8/1 : totesport)
Omotesando / New Strategy @ 12.1/1 (4/1 & 13/8 : Hills)
Omotesando / Mezzotint @ 39.5/1 (7/2 & 8/1 : Betfair Sports)

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9 replies
  1. Blokeshead says:

    That’d be a nice reverse forecast double…. only a complete idiot would put a quarter of a point on that, which is exactly what I want to bookies to think I am, so here goes…. 🙂

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Haha, best of luck with that, Stuart! I was thinking e/w doubles might be the more prudent approach, but went the brave* man’s route instead…

      Matt

      *brave may well turn out to be, erm, something else later, though the prices at least reflect that.

  2. Chris Worrall says:

    I like all four from a statistical (unsurprising?) viewpoint. And Saturdays are often strange days for results and we’ve both hit these big priced doubles in the past…

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That was my thinking, Chris.

      p.s. welcome back – hope the suit fits!! 😉

      • Chris Worrall says:

        I’ve not been brave enough to try, yet.
        Mind you, sitting here eating cold pizza isn’t going to help!

        • Blokeshead says:

          You only have to go an hour north for a nice hot deep-fried Mars Bar, don’t you? 😉

          Welcome back, good sir. Hope you had a good holiday.

  3. Everyone calls me Paul says:

    Silent Attack would have made a good pick in a rodeo, Matt…can’t do much about that.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      For sure, bizarre effort; and then the other one was nutted on the line. Hey ho.

  4. Matt Bisogno says:

    Good grief. Honestly, if I hadn’t researched and written this post myself, I’d be heckling.

    I’m grateful for your tolerance of what has been a shocking spell in the chair, bordering on embarrassing. 🙁

    Hopefully a change of scribe will elicit a change of luck. Mine, extending in every direction outside of DD, is abominable over the last few weeks.

    Matt

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