Double Dutch, 7th July 2014
Saturday was another good day for us and the fact that it was my fifth success from six days on my first week back in the chair reminds us all of the cyclical nature of "tipping" (I hate that word) and betting in general.
Three weeks ago, I took myself out of the firing line, because I couldn't seem to buy a double, despite still finding plenty of winners and placers: I just couldn't get 2 winners to fall together.
So, in order to preserve my sanity and also the P/L figure, I asked Matt to step in for a fortnight, which he did to great effect and success, before I came back last Monday.
Suitably refreshed, I've had an excellent week,but I really should stress that I haven't made any changes to the way I go about finding selections, it's just my time again.
The week was wrapped up on Saturday with two winners, a runner-up, a non-runner and the added bonus of the Exacta in race 1. The non-runner had an adverse effect on the price if our winner in race 2 (-25% Rule 4), but we got the consolation of an extra singles bet, making for a small profit of 3.08pts on the day, not including the Exacta, of course.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Matravers: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Persian Bolt: 2nd at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
The Exacta paid out at 7.70/1 here
Roseburg: won at 5/6 (adv 6/4, but 9/8 after deductions)
Tanseeb: non-runner (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
281 winning selections from 996 = 28.21%
91 winning bets in 259 days = 35.14%
P/L : +63.08pts (+12.13% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
We're now just 4 runners away from our 1,000th Double Dutch selection, so barring any non-runners, that will come from these today...
The official ratings suggest the winner (and probably the runner-up too!) will come from the two horses at the head of the market: Pershing & Koliakhova, who are currently both priced up around the 7/4 BOG mark.
Of the two, my preference is for Pershing, who is trained by Marco Botti, who trained the winner of this race last year and Martin Harley is in the saddle and has a 2/4 record for the Botti yard here at Windsor. Martin's in decent nick (8/39 in 2 weeks, 4/16 last week), the yard is going well with three winners last week and has a 22.2% strike rate here at Windsor in the last three years. This represents quite a drop in class for Pershing and as such, I expect full advantage to be taken.
Koliakhova might well have been disappointing at Nottingham almost four weeks ago, but in her defence, that was her first effort in the UK since coming over from France. A switch from jockey Pat Cosgrave to Kieran Fallon is definitely a positive move and prior to moving here, she was rated in the 70's after some consistent performances in France, where her finishes of 236412 as a 3yr old certainly set a good standard for the rest of these to chase.
Trainer George Baker has a good record in these lowly claimer races too. BetVictor & SkyBet currently offer the best odds on this one at 15/8 BOG.
This is another race that looks like a two-horse shootout at the top of the market. William Haggas has a good record with handicap debutants and he runs Telmeyd here after a win at Chester last time out. it wasn't the strongest maiden you'll ever see, but he was impressive when winning by a good five lengths. He had Red Forever 17 lengths beind him that day, but the latter has since won off a mark 6lbs higher than the Chester run and with natural progression from Telmeyd expected he could well land this at 2/1 BOG.
Lady Cecil's progressive looking Sunrise Star also trades at 2/1 BOG and comes here off the back of a win at Bath a month ago, taking her career form line to 4321. This is a tougher race than last time out, but she is still on an upward curve and she was highly impressive last time out. You can only beat what's put in front of you and at Bath, she left 11 rivals trialing in her wake, with the runner-up 8 lengths adrift and the last horse home was 36 lengths behind her and all over just 5.5 furlongs.
She was clear at the 2 pole and in fairness could have won by an even bigger margin. She'll not have it all her own way today, as there seems to be plenty of early pace in the race, but winning becomes a habit and we can't be too sure how far she can improve. That said, I can't see her outside the first two home.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Pershing / Telmeyd @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : generally available)
Pershing / Sunrise Star @ 7.25/1 (7/4 & 2/1 : generally available)
Koliakhova/ Telmeyd @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : BetVictor & SkyBet)
Koliakhova / Sunrise Star @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : BetVictor & SkyBet)