Double Dutch, 7th March 2014
After back to back successes on Tuesday and Wednesday, I couldn't have got it much worse yesterday! Mind you, I wasn't the only one, based on the way the market played the first of our two races.
I'd (foolishly, in hindsight) overlooked ex-Geegeez stalwart Khajaaly, based on his prior lack of success at Southwell, but the track is one of trainer Mick Appleby's happier hunting grounds and so it proved again yesterday as Khajaaly was returned a 6/1 winner.
As I said, I wasn't the only one to miss out here, as he had drifted from a 7/2 opening show out to his SP of 6/1. Meanwhile, my selections could only manage 3rd and 4th in a 6-horse race. The fact that the exact same result was repeated at Wolverhampton a few hours later is best left ignored for now!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Imaginary World: 3rd (of 6) at 5/1 (adv 4/1)
Alpha Tauri: 4th (of 6) at 5/2 (adv 5/2)
Jewelled: 3rd (of 6) at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Waveguide: 4th (of 6) at 7/4 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
171 winning selections from 606 = 28.22%
57 winning bets in 160 days = 35.63%
P/L : +43.82pts (+13.87% ROI)
I'm looking for a quick return to winning ways today from these races North of the Border:
Trainer Jim Goldie's horses tend to go well when there's mud around (10/37 on heavy a 6/1 or under in the last three years) and in Los Nadis, he has a horse who has won here on heavy ground in the past and also has won over today's trip of just over 3 miles. His last three outings have all been over an inadequate 2m4f since finishing a creditable 4th at Musselburgh over today's trip. He was only beaten by a length and a half that day and that was a Class 2 race, so he's taking a step down in grade for this one, where he's best priced at 7/2 BOG.
He has just three rivals here today and of those, the one that interests me most is handicap debutant Mysteree who comes here after running consistently well in his six bumper/novice runs to date finishing 312243 in the process.He might well be top rated at 120 here for this race, but that opening handicap mark looks more than fair, if I'm honest and the Racing Post have him at 123. He has always shaped as though 3m plus would be more his range and today he gets a first crack at the longer trip. He's currently the joint favourite at 15/8 BOG, so he seem to be well-respected here.
The 10 yr old grey Wicklow Lad has seemed to be saving some of his best form for the twilight of his career, and over the last year since reverting to chasing he has won twice from eight starts and has made the frame on four other occasions. He was a course and distance winner here nine weeks ago and was victorious at Newcastle over today's trip last time out on heavy ground.
Seven of his eight career wins have been on soft/heavy ground and his record on heavy ground alone reads 4 wins and 6 further places from 17 attempts with finishes of 323121 from his last 6 heavy ground efforts in the last year. He might well be up another 5lbs for recent form, but conditions look optimal for him to score at 2/1 BOG here today.
The main danger should come from 5/2 BOG chance Mister Marker, providing there isn't too much early pace for him. He's admittedly better suited to a longer trip than this one, but these small fields races tend to become tactical affairs, which might suit his chances. He looks to be well weighted for this and will benefit from the presence of a 7lb claim from a jockey who could only claim 5lbs when winning on him at Kelso last time out.
This rise in claim cancels out two of the three pounds he has been raised for that recent win, enabling him to remain competitive again here today. He has two previous wins at the tack and also two wins at this trip and although he won't want it bottomless, he does act on heavy ground and has a good record in soft conditions (4 wins and 3 places from 11).
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Mysteree / Wicklow Lad @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Mysteree / Mister Marker @ 9.06/1 (15/8 & 5/2 : Stan James)
Los Nadis / Wicklow Lad @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Stan James)
Los Nadis / Mister Marker @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : Stan James)