Double Dutch, 7th May 2014
It was one of those close, but not close enough days yesterday as we were a neck away from a very tidy 13.63/1 double.
We had the first two home in race one, where Edlomond was even able to make a really bad mistake three out and still win by five lengths ahead of Not Til Monday who completed a 6.6/1 exacta for those of you doing the combo bet.
We had taken 9/4 about our winner, putting us in a healthy position for the later runners at 7/2 and 4/1. Both Glanely and Athletic ran good races but were just edged out by a flyer late on. The margins of defeat were two necks in a blanket finish where the first five home were separated by just a length and a half.
A winner, two runners-up and a third place isn't bad going at all, but it isn't enough for a payout, I'm afraid.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Edlomond: won at 2/1 (adv 9/4)
Not Til Monday: 2nd at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid £7.60 here.
Glanely: 2nd at 7/2 (adv 3/1)
Athletic: 3rd at 4/1 (adv 4/1)
Results to date:
228 winning selections from 795 = 28.68%
75 winning bets in 209 days = 35.89%
P/L : +63.94pts (+15.44% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I've not quite been in as good form as I'd like of late, but we're getting close more often than not and I'm hopeful of more good performances from these today...
Just five runners go to post for this and I think it's going to be between the three at the head of the market. They all lack experience over fences, so it's a level playing field in that respect, but conditions look ideal for Runswick Royal to land this one at 9/4 BOG. He has the best hurdling form of the five runners here and whilst that doesn't always translate to chasing, its' still worth considering.
Runswick Royal is 2/2 on good to soft ground, he's 3/3 at this Class 4 level and he has a win and a place from three attempts at this trip. The win was on his only previous outing to Kelso and he can be excused the unplaced effort when pulled up before the last in the far tougher Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. He had run really well until three out that day and the fact he was in the race says something about future potential.
The big danger is the Nicky Henderson horse and current 15/8 BOG favourite Master of the Game. Hendo doesn't send many runners to Kelso, but he's 7/17 here since 2003 and 5/6 with chasers with the only losing chaser finishing second to a horse that won Grade 2 contests.
Master of the Game was also in the same Cheltenham race and was the last home of the finishers, having led until three out. Prior to that, he was a winner at Class 3 and he's 1 from 2 at this trip, whilst he as won twice and placed once in his last three runs on good to soft ground and this could well be a cracking contest despite the small field.
We should also point out that chase favourites do well here at Kelso (7/17 this year) and that backing all non-handicap chase favourites has an overall 52% strike rate (84/163) for a small (6%) profit.
The seven-year old Picansort may well be 0/12 on turf, but this multiple (8/36) winner on the A/W will probably not get a better chance to open his account. He comes here in good form, finishing third and first in his last two outings, both at a higher level than this contest. He won at Lingfield off a mark of 84 almost six weeks ago and his new mark will be 88, yet he comes here into a 0-70 handicap running off just 64. He's 7 from 18 at this minimum trip on the A/W and if he finally gets to grips with the turf, he's weighted to take this at around 2/1 BOG.
It's a pretty weak race here and there's little encouragement about any of the runners in truth, but Magical Speedfit is interesting at least. A career flat record of 6/74 isn't much to crow about, but he's 5/19 here at Brighton and he's 4/12 at today's course and distance. He tends to produce his best here and has run well after an absence in the past. he's a tentative selection, but at 7/1 BOG with Hills, could well be worth the risk today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Master of the Game / Picansort @ 7.63/1 (15/8 & 2/1 : Hills)
Master of the Game / Magical Speedfit @ 22/1 (15/8 & 7/1 : Hills)
Runswick Royal / Picansort @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : generally)
Runswick Royal / Magical Speedfit @ 25/1 (9/4 & 7/1 : Hills)