Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th September 2015

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 7th September 2015

Thankfully, seasoned Geegeez readers don't need lecturing avout bank management and how to cope with losing runs, as you're all pretty savvy about that area of the game.

The truth is we're struggling on DD at the moment, but it hasn't always been that way and I'm sure results will pick up soon.

My thanks to Matt for taking on the extra workload in my absence and it was just a pity he wasn't able to break the poor run I had endured prior to my holidays, but hopefully another change of writer will spark a little respite.

Saturday's results were as follows:

Yours Truly : DH 5th at 6/1 (adv 11/2)
Omotesando : DH 5th at 6/1 (adv 4/1)
New Strategy : 3rd at 11/8 (adv 7/4)
Mezzotint : 8th at 4/1 (adv 8/1)

Results to date:
662 winning selections from 2373 = 27.90%
209 winning bets in 615 days = 33.98%

Stakes: 1229.50pts
Returns: 1320.08pts
P/L : +90.58pts (+7.37% ROI)


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Monday's (largely stat-based!) selections are as follows...

2.00 Brighton :

Trainer David Simcock does well here at Brighton, especially in the lower grade races and also with runners who've had the benefit of a fairly recent run. Add all three factors together and you've got the 5/2 BOG Escrick who was a winner over this trip last time out.

That was up at Newcastle just 10 days ago and was also the first time that today's jockey Silvestre de Sousa had ridden her and the jockey also has a very good strike both for the trainer ands also at this track, making Escrick a strong bet on the stats available.

Another partnership that goes well here at Brighton is the lesser known pairing of trainer John Gallagher and jockey Michael Murphy who are 4 from 10 together in Brighton handicaps and in Heartsong, have an excellent chance of improving those figures, as she was a good 3 lengths winner at Chepstow a week ago at a higher grade than this.

Although penalised for that run, she's technically well in at the weights and this 9/4 BOG shot is another who seems to perform best at this trip when turned out fairly soon after her last run.


4.40 Perth :

Gordon Elliott's string might not be in the best form of late (we know that feeling!), but an upturn is surely not very far away and when you consider that his handicap hurdlers have a near-31% strike rate at this track over the years (14/34 in the last 16 months!), then you'd have to seriously consider Rosie Revenue as an option for Gordon to get off the cold list.

This lightly raced 5 yr old was a winner over 2m7f at Downpatrick two starts ago and was a decent third over this course and distance off today's mark last time out 16 days ago and with this looking a weaker contest, I wouldn't be too surprised if she was back in the winners' enclosure at teatime with a 2/1 BOG win under her belt.

The big threat in my eyes is the 100/30 BOG Maraweh, who comes here off the back of a win in that same race over C&D 16 days ago, when he beat Rosie Revenue by the best part of 8 lengths, but is now 7lbs worse off, making for a tighter contest. Male handicap hurdlers who are turned out fairly quickly after a win in a novice handicap tend to fare very well as do last time out winners who have the CD logo next to their name on the racecard.

For the benefit of brevity, I've purposefully not expanded on the stats I've based the selections upon, but I'm always happy to deal with queries via the comments box below.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:

Heartsong / Rosie Revenue @ 8.75/1 (9/4 & 2/1 : Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)
Heartsong / Maraweh @ 13.08/1 (9/4 & 100/30 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Escrick / Rosie Revenue @ 9.50/1 (5/2 & 2/1 : generally)
Escrick / Maraweh @ 14.17/1 (5/2 & 10/3 : Betfair, Betfred, SkyBet & Totesport)

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7 replies
    • Chris Worrall says:

      I think you’ve misappraised the situation, Stuart.
      I was in terrible form on DD before I went away and now I’ve returned from holiday I’ve hit a winner.

      That clearly suggests I need more holidays. 😀

      • Blokeshead says:

        Oops. And oops. Perhaps you should BOTH go away on holiday more often?

        Have fun! 😉

  1. neilmck says:

    Something I’ve been wondering about is what the criteria for the three services are and if, perhaps, there is room for some overlap between SotD / Statpicks and Double Dutch. I’m sure it must be a conscious decision that the three services have unique selections but I’m not sure if that’s because the selection criteria for DD is different to the other two, or if it’s just that you want to keep them all distinct.

    I can certainly see why lots of the DD selections wouldn’t qualify for the other two services – often there is a strong favourite at less than 2/1 which is shorter than any SotD/Statpicks I’ve seen. Looking at it from the other side though, aren’t there times when you pick something for SotD/Statpicks but identify another horse you fancy in the race? In situations like this might it make sense to have that selection appear as a single bet for SotD/SP but also as half of the DD bet?

  2. neilmck says:

    And about the holiday situation, presumably you’ve got some stats on your performance after a rest period?

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