Double Dutch, 8th August 2014
Wednesday's near-miss (going down by a neck) proved to be a good marker/sighter for Thursday's picks. The end result was two winners, a runner-up and a third place finish, a 6.4/1 exacta and a very nice 11.25/1 double, courtesy of a couple of 5/2 victors.
As I thought she might, Serena Brotherton came out best in the ladies' race and the slight drift for her runner City Ground meant a decent stake for race 2, where Jonny Skull had been backed in from his early price of 5/2.
He stayed on well to win by a length and a quarter to give his trainer the honour of three winners and a place from his four runners at the track.
Thursday's results were as follows:
City Ground: won at 5/2 (adv 9/4)
Gabrial The Terror: 2nd at 6/4 (adv 9/4)
The Exacta paid out at 6.4/1 here.
Jonny Skull: won at 15/8 (adv 5/2)
Bladewood Girl: 3rd at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
312 winning selections from 1099 = 28.39%
103 winning bets in 287 days = 35.89%
P/L : +64.32pts (+11.17% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'll be looking to continue this little run of fine form with these on Friday...
Muhawalah had been steadily improving (6422) in her short career to date, before winning at Carlisle last time out wearing today's hood and blinkers. There are some evident temperament issues, but there's also plenty of signs of ability too. her best two runs this year have come on quick ground, so barring a deluge, she should be well suited here for her handicap bow, where she looks fairly well treated off an opening mark of 79.
Prior to winning at Carlisle, she 3 lengths behind Kleo who has since stepped up to Class 3 level to win just as comfortably, giving us some hope for a 7/2 BOG win today.
The big danger, however, is the current 9/4 BOG favourite, Fire Fighting, who ducked out of last night's SotD race in favour of this weaker looking affair. He ran a solid race to finish third at Glorious Goodwood last Friday and steps down in class for this encounter. His mark has dropped by 12lbs over the season so far and now that he just squeezes into this 0-80 race, it could be just the step backwards he needs to go forwards again.
A winner last season off 85 and ran well enough on his seasonal reappearance in May off 92, beaten by less than 3 lengths at Class 2 level on soft ground. he does his best running on quicker ground and if running his race today, should be taking this.
Water Hole is two from three so far, all at today's trip and the defeat cam by just half a length on debut last season. She was impressive at Doncaster a month ago on her handicap bow and seasonal reappearance, when scoring by two lengths after a 31-week break. A 7lb rise in weights doesn't actually look too punitive for a filly who seems to have much more in her locker and with both her trainer and jockey in excellent recent form (6/15 together this month!), the booking of William Buick to ride her for the first time is seen (by me, anyway!) as another positive and whilst we're not getting rich here, a winner at 6/4 BOG will do nicely if race 1 has proven successful.
The contingency plan is Etaab, who has been waiting for this faster ground, ducking out of three contests deemed too soft/slow for her. A creditable 6th on debut back in April has been followed by three consecutive victories, including two handicap successes at C4 and C3. She'll get the trip and she likes the ground and is proven at this level, it's just a pity (for her) that she's up against Water Hole, but at 11/4 BOG, is the ideal backup in case things don't quite happen for the favourite.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Fire Fighting / Water Hole @ 7.13/1 (9/4 & 6/4 : Stan James)
Fire Fighting / Etaab @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : Hills)
Muhawalah / Water Hole @ 10.25/1 (7/2 & 6/4 : SkyBet)
Muhawalah / Etaab @ 14.75/1 (7/2 & 5/2 : SkyBet)