Double Dutch, 8th August 2015
We ere back to crossbar-rattling at Musselburgh on Friday afternoon, with a pair of runners-up as our best finishers. Strangely though, both short-priced favourties flopped and the two longer picks which I expected to come second, did exactly that!
I just picked the wrong ones to win!
Poplar Close came late (too late?) and was well held in the end, whilst Glenrowan Rose was a shade unlucky to get collared very late on, losing by a short head. But, if you don't get home, you don't get paid! And so it proved for her and us on a day best forgotten.
Friday's results were as follows:
Poplar Close : 2nd at 7/4 (adv 5/2)
Tholen : 4th at 9/4 (adv 11/4)
Glenrowan Rose : 2nd at Evs (adv 7/4)
Plagiarism : 3rd at 13/8 (adv 7/4)
Results to date:
645 winning selections from 2281 = 28.28%
203 winning bets in 591 days = 34.35%
P/L : +114.09pts (+9.66% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Last picks of the week and a winning send-off would be most pleasant...
26 winners from 74 (35.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+42.6% ROI) in the last 30 days suggests the Roger Varian horses are flying and in Almohtaseb, they've got a great cance of extending that record. The yard historically does well in Flat handicaps and has a good record with handciap debutants, especially those stepping up in trip and their runner here is in good nick too.
He didn't see out a mile on the Rowley course here on debut in mid-April, but was a good second next time out at Salisbury (7f), staying on and then was a comprehensive 7 lengths winner at Doncaster next/last time out. That was 16 days ago and the manner of the win said he had plenty left and moving back to a mile today shouldn't be enough to stop Almohtaseb and that's probably why he's 15/8 BOG!
Mutasayyid is the backup and he's already raced several times at this level to good effect. He has won two and placed in three others from just six starts and has two very good recent runs in better races than this. He was 2nd (1.25L) behind Portage in a £28k Class 2 handicap at Ascot last time out a fortnight ago in a race that came two weeks after a third place run over this course and distance in a £25k race.
He finished just over 2 lengths behind the runner-up (who only lost by a neck), Great Park, who has since made a winning reappearance and if that form holds out, it could point to some further improvement from Mutasayyid today. It has been suggested that he'd want softer ground than he'll get here (the Ascot run was on Soft), but that 3rd over C&D was on similar Good to Firm as he'll face today and I think that the 9/2 BOG from Coral is more than fair.
This won't be the strongest/best nursery race you'll see this season, with the runners having a combined record of 1 win and 2 places from 34, so it makes sense (to me, anyway!) to start with those who have at least shown some promise.
Harlequin Rock is the sole winner here and he absolutely romped home by five lengths at Nottingham on Monday under today's jockey John Egan, who incidentally rode yesterday's Stat of the Day horse to victory, but I digress! He does drop back in trip here today, but that last run suggested he has the turn of foot required to take this one today.
I'd expect him to be raised by more than the 6lb penalty incurred from that win, so he's quite possibly well in at the weights and in a race of inexperienced horses with little form behind them, Harlequin Rock does look a fairly solid pick here at 2/1 BOG.
The two to have placed in the past are Silver Springs and Eglantyne Dream and I'm going to side with the latter. This will be her fifth start, having finished third on debut at Bath on debut back in he first week of June, staying on well over what looked an inadequate 5f trip on quick ground and she already has handicap (nursery) experience from her latest run, which was over today's course and distance three weeks ago.
She finished fourth of six that day, beaten by four lengths on similarly good to firm ground as today (and also from her Bath 3rd place) and the bare result doesn't really fill you with confidence, but closer inspection of the race tells you otherwise. The official report given in the results says she had no extra inside the final furlong, but it neglects to tell you that she was really well positioned with every chance when her jockey dropped the whip with the best part of that furlong to run.
Obviously, it's pure conjecture to say she would have won, but I'm convinced she would have at least made the frame. She was 1.75 lengths behind Davids Beauty who finished third and she then reappeared here over course and distance to win just four days later, which could point to another good run from Eglantyne Dream who is priced at 4/1 BOG, as she drops in class today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Almohtaseb / Harlequin Rock @ 6.91/1 (7/4 & 15/8 : Paddy & BetVictor)
Almohtaseb / Eglantyne Dream @ 12.75/1 (7/4 & 4/1 : Paddy)
Mutasayyid / Harlequin Rock @ 12.50/1 (7/2 & 2/1 : Hills)
Mutasayyid / Eglantyne Dream @ 21.50/1 (7/2 & 4/1 : Generally)