Double Dutch, 8th February 2014
After drawing a blank on Thursday, we got back to winning ways yesterday to record a 7th win in 9 days, but I have to warn new readers that it won't always be this way! 😀
I suggested that Triangular looked big at 5/1 and so it proved as he returned a 4/1 winner staying on strongly, whilst Summery Justice was 3.5 lengths behind in 4th place. He also stayed on well, but a couple of errors put paid to his chances of winning.
And then at Wolverhampton, I liked the look of Ealain Aibrean and thought she was well weighted to continue recent progression and she did well to hold in a tight finish, having made all. She wasn't well fancied by the general public, drifting out to 7/2 from our advised 11/4 (which I thought was generous!), but she got home by three parts of a length regardless. Blacke Forest was a length away in third.
It was a close contest with the first four of the five runners separated by just a length and a half and the icing on the cake was Ealain Aibrean's drift in the market, giving us a 26/1 double on the day.
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Triangular: won at 4/1 (adv 5/1)
Summery Justice: u/p at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Ealain Aibrean: won at 7/2 (adv 11/4)
Blacke Forest: u/p at 6/5 (adv 2/1)
Results to date:
143 winning selections from 503 = 28.43%
48 winning doubles in 134 days = 35.82%
P/L : +29.05pts (+10.92% ROI)
The ROI is now over 10%, which is where would love to stay, so I'm advising a "free hit" today on Betfair Super Saturday:
Al Ferof is the best horse in this race, in my opinion. I don't think I really need to say too much about him, other than I expect him to win! There are, admittedly, some concerns about him handling the conditions, but there was plenty of mud around when he won the 2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup two starts ago, whilst his third in the King George looks to be the best run of those competing here, making him the most likely at 7/4 BOG (Stan James)
The main challenge should come from Katenko, representing the in-form Venetia Williams team, where Aidan Coleman once again takes the reins. he'll relish the conditions and has performed well on both soft and heavy ground in the past. He may not have been at his best of late, but looked to be coming back to form at Haydock LTO and receiving weight from most of his rivals will help today, making him my next best here at a generally available 3/1 BOG.
Module looks the one to beat here, but is only best priced at 7/4 BOG with bet365. He's 2 from 2 on heavy ground and 1 from 1 here at Newbury, also on heavy ground just after Christmas when winning by 6 lengths over a slightly longer trip than today. That race has already produced more winners and with conditions set to play their part here today, he's the one I'm siding with.
I could make a case for a couple of his rivals, but I'm picking Paul Nicholls' Dodging Bullets as my backup horse here. Paul has a good record in this race in the past and brings Dodging Bullets here after completing a hat-trick of chase wins (100% record over fences!) after a decent hurdling campaign. He has three wins and a place from 5 runs at this level and was very impressive when beating the Henderson 1/2 favourite Grandouet by 10 lengths last time out. He clearly has ability, hence his fairly low price of 9/4 BOG today.
Today is Betfair Super Saturday, where any losing double is refunded, so I'll quote the Betfair BOG double odds too for a free hit, so we have...
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, all with Bet365 as follows:
Al Ferof / Module @ 6.22/1 (13/8 & 7/4 [5.56/1 @ Betfair])
Al Ferof / Dodging Bullets @ 7.53/1 (13/8 & 9/4 [6.88/1 @ Betfair])
Katenko / Module @ 10/1 (3/1 & 7/4 [8.38/1 @ Betfair])
Katenko / Dodging Bullets @ 12/1 (3/1 & 9/4 [10.25/1 @ Betfair])
So although the betfair odds are lower, you're actually better off taking them today!