Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th October 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 8th October 2013

I'd narrowed yesterday's first race down to three contenders and thankfully discarded the right one as Oasis Fantasy beat Throne Room home in another 1-2 for the Double Dutch.

Unfortunately, we were unable to secure the double, as both Train Hard and Inherited made the frame, but were ultimately thwarted by a surprise 12/1 winner who stayed on dourly and refused to be caught, denying us an 18.25/1 double in the process!

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Oasis Fantasy: won at 9/2
Throne Room: 2nd at 6/4 (SP evens)
(The Exacta paid £12.50 here to a £1 stake!)
---------------------------------
Train Hard: 2nd at 5/2 (SP 9/4)
Inherited: 3rd at 5/2 (SP 15/8)

Trial to date:

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31 winning selections from 118 = 26.27%
8 winning doubles in 33 days = 24.24%

Stakes: 64.5pts
Returns: 49.78pts

P/L : -14.72pts (-22.82% ROI)

Back to back UK flat action today, starting in the...

3.20 Brighton
Caridadi and Desert Society hold the best pieces of form on show in this maiden of those who have previously run and the market doesn't really support any of the debutants here. Caridadi is currently 7/4 (BetVictor) and was only beaten by a length and a half into third at Haydock last time out, despite running green for much of the race. He's sure to have come on for that effort and is entitled to step up here today.

Desert Society went one better on his debut finishing second in a very promising run at Kempton. He travelled strongly that day and looked like he needed further than the 7f on offer there. Today's mile trip should suit him better and he looks a decent prospect at 3/1 (generally)

3.30 Catterick
King of Macedon is even money with Paddy Power and it's easy to see why. he impressively beat The Hooded Claw (subsequently 5th in Listed class) on debut at Ripon 10 days and wouldn't need to improve to take this too.

The main danger is likely to come from Ventura Quest who has already won once and made the frame once in three starts. The 4/1 on offer from Stan James is interesting, as he's far less exposed than any of the other rivals to the favourite.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Caridadi / King of Macedon @ 5.25 with BetVictor, Boylesports and Paddy Power
Caridadi / Ventura Quest @ 13.15 with Stan James
Desert Society / King of Macedon @ 8.00 with Paddy Power
Desert Society / Ventura Quest @ 20.00 with William Hill

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3 replies
  1. doug says:

    Any worth in analysing a conservative staking increase after a loss since the inception of DD? I have done that successfully over the past 10 days. . . . . . . . .

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Hi Doug,
      Yes I can see how that has worked of late, especially whilst we had the run of 6 wins on 12 days. However, I should add that we opened with a losing run of 7 before our first winner followed by a losing run of 6 to our second winner. We then had 4 losing days, before the run of 6 winners from 12. I’d imagine that an incremental staking plan would have lost a lot of money in our first 13 days.

      Cheers,
      Chris

  2. Matt Bisogno says:

    Good shooting Chris!!! Really hitting the mark these last ten days or so. You know what that means of course… 😉

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