Double Dutch, 8th September 2013
Don't worry, I've not given up on this just yet, despite yesterday's poor showing. A combination of an alarm that didn't ring, a traffic tailback and a dearth of decent racing have combined to make me several hours later than I'd like with this post. It's not even an interesting story, so I'll not bore you with the details!
Yesterday's results were as follows:
Bennys Quest : 2nd
Synthe Davis : 3rd
Al Kazeem : 2nd
Declaration of War : non-runner
Another non-runner and just a pair of runners-up was the best I could manage, I'm afraid, but today is another day and we swiftly move onto today's first race which is the...
At the risk of becoming predictable, I really cannot see the winner coming from outside the top two in the market and although odds of around 4/1 for both of Hoofalong and Lancelot du Lac are a little longer than I'd usually put in these double, I feel they represent an excellent chance of us taking a decent stake into our second race. I saw Can You Conga as the main threat but hat horse is now also a non-runner. Several of the remainder of the field are well held on form in races against my chosen pair.
Hoofalong looked good in defeat at the recent Ebor meeting at York and should be a major player stepping down in class today, whilst Lancelot du Lac was very impressive whilst winning at Newmarket at this level last time out, so both horses come here in good heart and good nick. It should also be noted that Dean Ivory (trainer of Lancelot du Lac) has a record of 4 wins and 4 places in handicap races at York in the last two years.
I chose this race because I really fancy the chances of Safe Investment here. Lawney Hill's yard is in really good form at present with four of her last six runners all winning and she looks set to improve that run here. Her entry in this race has already finished second and then won here over course and distance in the last month and as such, Safe Investment looks to live up to his name this afternoon at odds of around 3/1, which then leaves with the task of finding the best back-up plan!
It then basically comes down to a choice between the 2/1 favourite Chestnut Ben and 7/1 shot Wak A Turtle. I have misgivings over the pair of them. Chestnut Ben is consistent, but he's a consistent loser. It's eighteen months and twelve races since he last won and despite finishing second four times and third five times in his last ten outings, he just can't get home first. A further 4lb rise for his latest run will do him no favours, either.
Wak A Turtle has only had one try over the larger obstacles, when he was second over today's course and distance. His jumping left a little to be desired that day and he was badly hampered on a couple of occasions, but still got himself home in second place, going down by just six lengths to the useful and far more experienced Cinevator. A better round of jumping today could see him go very close at a nice price indeed.
All things considered, both Chestnut Ben and Wak A Turtle have about as much chance as each other, so I'm opting for value with Wak A Turtle at 7/1.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Hoofalong/ Safe Investment @ 20.00 with Paddy Power
Hoofalong/ Wak A Turtle @ 40.00 with Ladbrokes
Lancelot du Lac/ Safe Investment @ 20.00 with Coral
Lancelot du Lac/ Wak A Turtle @ 37.50 with Coral